Jake Elliott or Trey Smack: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Jake Elliott and Trey Smack grade out even this week. Elliott's best edge is the game script (26.0 implied points to 23.0), Smack's best edge is red-zone opportunity (1.5 to 0.8 stalls per game) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Jake Elliott

K20PHIvs WSH

8.58.58.5 Projected Points

Start

Trey Smack

K19GBvs MIN

8.38.38.3 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Jake Elliott

Start

Starting K and franchise mainstay. Super Bowl-tested in big moments but coming off back-to-back inconsistent regular seasons.

Start — K20 by consensus, projects K10 this week: 0.8 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.5 pts projected vs WSH.

1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
PHI's offense stalls in the red zone 0.8 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has PHI at 26 points as 5.5-point favorites.
74% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 3 games.

Why Trey Smack

Toss-Up

Toss-up — K19 by consensus, projects K17 this week: kicks indoors, and 1.5 red-zone stalls a game.

Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
2.0 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
GB's offense stalls in the red zone 1.5 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has GB at 23 points as 1.5-point favorites.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Jake Elliott	Trey Smack
Projected points	8.58.58.5	8.38.38.3
Consensus rank	K20	K19
Projected FG attempts	1.9	2.0
Red-zone stalls / game	0.8(2025)	1.5(2025)
Kicking conditions	—	Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread	26.0-5.5	23.0-1.5
Field-goal %	74.1%(2025)	—
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	—	0–0+1 toss-up