Chase McLaughlin or Trey Smack: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Chase McLaughlin and Trey Smack grade out even this week. McLaughlin's best edge is the consensus rank (K15 to K19), Smack's best edge is red-zone opportunity (1.5 to 1.4 stalls per game) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Chase McLaughlin

K15TBvs CIN

8.48.48.4 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Trey Smack

K19GBvs MIN

8.38.38.3 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Chase McLaughlin

Toss-Up

Veteran starting placekicker. Reliable leg with strong field-goal accuracy.

Toss-up — K15 consensus and projection: 1.4 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.4 pts projected vs CIN.

2.0 FG tries projected, right at the 2.0 league median this week.
TB's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has TB at 23.5 points as 3.5-point dogs.
84% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 7 games.

Why Trey Smack

Toss-Up

Toss-up — K19 by consensus, projects K17 this week: kicks indoors, and 1.5 red-zone stalls a game.

Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
2.0 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
GB's offense stalls in the red zone 1.5 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has GB at 23 points as 1.5-point favorites.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Chase McLaughlin	Trey Smack
Projected points	8.48.48.4	8.38.38.3
Consensus rank	K15	K19
Projected FG attempts	2.0	2.0
Red-zone stalls / game	1.4(2025)	1.5(2025)
Kicking conditions	—	Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread	23.5+3.5	23.0-1.5
Field-goal %	84.2%(2025)	—
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	0–0+1 toss-up