Start Trey Smack over Nick Folk — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Smack — the game script and red-zone opportunity edges are too wide to ignore.

Trey Smack plays in the better game script (23.0 implied team points to 19.8) and gets more red-zone stalls to kick from (1.5 to 1.2 per game). Folk's edge is the consensus rank, K17 to K19. The gap is narrow.

Nick Folk

K17ATLvs PIT

7.87.87.8 Projected Points

Sit

Trey Smack

K19GBvs MIN

8.38.38.3 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Nick Folk

Sit

Veteran starting K. Steady, accurate kicker with long-distance experience.

Sit — K17 by consensus, projects K22 this week: 1.2 red-zone stalls a game, and 7.8 pts projected vs PIT.

2.0 FG tries projected, right at the 2.0 league median this week.
ATL's offense stalls in the red zone 1.2 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has ATL at 19.8 points as 3-point dogs.
97% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 6 games.

Why Trey Smack

Toss-Up

Toss-up — K19 by consensus, projects K17 this week: kicks indoors, and 1.5 red-zone stalls a game.

Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
2.0 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
GB's offense stalls in the red zone 1.5 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has GB at 23 points as 1.5-point favorites.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Nick Folk	Trey Smack
Projected points	7.87.87.8	8.38.38.3
Consensus rank	K17	K19
Projected FG attempts	2.0	2.0
Red-zone stalls / game	1.2(2025)	1.5(2025)
Kicking conditions	—	Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread	19.8+3.0	23.0-1.5
Field-goal %	96.6%(2025)	—
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	—	0–0+1 toss-up