Nick Folk or Wil Lutz: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Nick Folk and Wil Lutz grade out even this week. Folk's best edge is the consensus rank (K17 to K20), Lutz's best edge is red-zone opportunity (1.4 to 1.2 stalls per game) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Nick Folk

K17ATLvs PIT

7.87.87.8 Projected Points

Sit

Wil Lutz

K20DENvs KC

7.67.67.6 Projected Points

Sit

Why Nick Folk

Sit

Veteran starting K. Steady, accurate kicker with long-distance experience.

Sit — K17 by consensus, projects K22 this week: 1.2 red-zone stalls a game, and 7.8 pts projected vs PIT.

2.0 FG tries projected, right at the 2.0 league median this week.
ATL's offense stalls in the red zone 1.2 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has ATL at 19.8 points as 3-point dogs.
97% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 6 games.

Why Wil Lutz

Sit

Veteran starting placekicker. Reliable leg with steady FG and PAT production across full-season usage.

Sit — K20 by consensus, projects K24 this week: 1.4 red-zone stalls a game, and 7.6 pts projected vs KC.

1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
DEN's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has DEN at 20 points as 2.5-point dogs.
88% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 4 games.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Nick Folk	Wil Lutz
Projected points	7.87.87.8	7.67.67.6
Consensus rank	K17	K20
Projected FG attempts	2.0	1.9
Red-zone stalls / game	1.2(2025)	1.4(2025)
Implied total · spread	19.8+3.0	20.0+2.5
Field-goal %	96.6%(2025)	87.5%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1