Travis Kelce or Tucker Kraft: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Role is locked in: 78% snap share and 20% target share over 3 games gives Kelce a stable PPR floor at a thin position.
• Game environment helps: KC is a 5.5-point favorite with a 24.5 implied total, so scoring chances near the goal line should be there.
• Matchup leans soft at 24 of 32 vs TEs, but it is a 3-game sample at 0.25 confidence, so it adds little beyond the projection.
• At TE11 with 11.8 projected points and no injury designation, he clears typical replacement options. The Stafford/Swift headline is unverified and irrelevant to his outlook.

The call

• Role is locked in. Kraft has an 80% snap share over 3 games, and PFF reported he 'rarely left the field in Week 3' despite early snap-count talk. For a tight end, that is every-down usage.
• Consensus TE9 at 8.9 projected PPR points puts him inside the starting tier at a thin position. A typical replacement option on waivers projects lower.
• The TB matchup is neutral at 19 of 32 on a 3-game sample with 0.25 confidence, so it doesn't push either way. A 24.5 implied team total and -1.5 spread point to a competitive, scoring-friendly script.
• The main risk is a modest 14% target share, which caps his floor. I'm breaking from the house toss-up lean because full-time snaps plus a TE9 rank clear the bar. He is still a start rather than a lock.