NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning" — a bet that neither team scores in the top or bottom of the first inning. It cashes when the first inning ends 0–0.

YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning" — the opposite of NRFI. It wins if either team scores at least one run in the first inning.

How often do NRFI bets hit?

League-wide, the first inning ends scoreless in roughly the mid-50s percent of MLB games, though the rate moves with the run environment each season. Strong starting pitchers and pitcher-friendly parks push an individual matchup higher.

How are these NRFI numbers calculated?

Each starter’s first-inning runs-allowed history (from completed games), each lineup’s first-inning scoring rate, and the ballpark’s run factor are combined into a per-game first-inning outlook. Where books post a 1st-inning total, we show the market’s implied NRFI probability alongside the stats so you can compare. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.

NRFI Today

First-inning scoring outlook for today’s MLB slate — every starter’s NRFI rate, team first-inning trends, park factors, and real NRFI odds.

All-time lean record

139-108

247 graded

56%

hit rate

NRFI

58-4755%

YRFI

81-6157%

Jul 26, 2026 · 15 games

League first inning is scoreless ~49% of the time. Model probability shown per game.

NRFI Leans

3— First inning likely stays scoreless

CLE@

TB12:15 PM ET

NRFI lean

Model 56%Book -157 · 57%

Parker MessickLHP

90% NRFI · 20 GS · 3/5 L5

CLE 1st: 24% (#28) · 24% vs hand

Drew RasmussenRHP

78% NRFI · 18 GS · 4/5 L5

TB 1st: 34% (#7) · 29% vs hand

Parker Messick's 90% first-inning shutout rate over 20 starts headlines this one, and Cleveland's bats do little to threaten Drew Rasmussen — the Guardians rank 28th at scoring in the first, plating a run just 24% of the time. The Rays are livelier against lefties (29%), but Tropicana Field's below-average run factor and both arms' strong recent form nudge this toward NRFI.

Tropicana Field · park run factor 95

NRFI lean — Parker Messick (90% NRFI) and Drew Rasmussen (78%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
Books price this NRFI at -157 (57% implied); the model has it 56%.
The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 34% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 24% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.

SD@

MIA1:40 PM ET

NRFI lean

Model 54%Book -107 · 49%

Walker BuehlerRHP

80% NRFI · 20 GS · 3/5 L5

SD 1st: 23% (#30) · 22% vs hand

Janson JunkRHP

77% NRFI · 13 GS · 4/5 L5

MIA 1st: 31% (#16) · 30% vs hand

Walker Buehler brings a strong 80% first-inning shutdown rate into loanDepot park, and he's opposed by a Padres offense that plots first-inning runs just 23% of the time — dead last in MLB. Janson Junk matches up nicely too at 77% NRFI, keeping this leaning toward a quiet opening frame despite Miami's slightly better bats.

loanDepot park · park run factor 102

NRFI lean — Walker Buehler (80% NRFI) and Janson Junk (77%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
Books price this NRFI at -107 (49% implied); the model has it 54%.
The Miami Marlins score in the first in 31% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
The San Diego Padres score in the first in 23% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.

LAA@

SF4:05 PM ET

NRFI lean

Model 53% (low)Book -115 · 50%

Jose SorianoRHP

70% NRFI · 20 GS · 5/5 L5

LAA 1st: 34% (#6) · 34% vs hand

Carson WhisenhuntLHP

100% NRFI · 2 GS · 2/2 L5

SF 1st: 23% (#29) · 20% vs hand

Jose Soriano brings a clean first-inning slate into Oracle Park, posting a 70% NRFI over 20 starts and staying scoreless in all five of his last outings. That pairs nicely with a Giants lineup that plates a first-inning run just 23% of the time — 29th in MLB, and only 20% against righties. Whisenhunt's 100% NRFI is real but comes on just two starts, so lean cautiously.

Oracle Park · park run factor 94

NRFI lean — Jose Soriano has worked a scoreless first in 70% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
Books price this NRFI at -115 (50% implied); the model has it 53%.
The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 23% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 20% against right-handers.
The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.

YRFI Leans

4— A first-inning run looks likely

OAK@

MIN2:10 PM ET

YRFI lean

Model 43%Book +105.5 · 46%

Jeffrey SpringsLHP

47% NRFI · 19 GS · 3/5 L5

OAK 1st: 28% (#19) · 29% vs hand

Connor PrielippLHP

62% NRFI · 13 GS · 3/5 L5

MIN 1st: 36% (#1) · 34% vs hand

Minnesota's bats set the tone here — no lineup in baseball scores in the first inning more often, plating a run 36% of the time and 34% against lefties like Jeffrey Springs. Springs hasn't helped his own cause, holding a scoreless first in just 47% of his 19 starts. Even with Prielipp's cleaner 62% NRFI mark, the run-friendly Target Field backdrop nudges this toward YRFI.

Target Field · park run factor 104

YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 36% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
Books price this NRFI at +105.5 (46% implied); the model has it 43%.
The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 36% of games, the most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.
The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 28% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.

HOU@

CHW2:10 PM ET

YRFI lean

Model 46% (low)Book +100 · 47%

Ronel BlancoRHP

100% NRFI · 1 GS · 1/1 L5

HOU 1st: 35% (#3) · 40% vs hand

Erick FeddeRHP

40% NRFI · 10 GS · 1/5 L5

CHW 1st: 30% (#18) · 26% vs hand

Erick Fedde's shaky 40% NRFI rate over 10 starts is the big red flag here, and Houston's offense — 3rd in MLB at scoring first-inning runs and doing it 40% of the time against righties — is exactly the kind of lineup to punish it. Ronel Blanco carries a clean 100% mark, but that's just one start, so lean YRFI with low confidence.

Rate Field · park run factor 98

YRFI lean — the Houston Astros push a first-inning run across in 35% of games (3rd-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
Books price this NRFI at +100 (47% implied); the model has it 46%.
The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 30% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.
The Houston Astros score in the first in 35% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 40% against right-handers.

KC@

DET1:40 PM ET

YRFI lean

Model 46%Book -107 · 48%

Luinder AvilaRHP

50% NRFI · 10 GS · 3/5 L5

KC 1st: 31% (#12) · 32% vs hand

Framber ValdezLHP

68% NRFI · 19 GS · 4/5 L5

DET 1st: 33% (#9) · 37% vs hand

Framber Valdez's steady 68% NRFI mark is the anchor here, but he's up against a Royals side that's put a run on the board in the first in only 31% of games this year. The bigger swing is Luinder Avila, sitting at a coin-flip 50% NRFI and trending the wrong way with runs allowed in three of his last five first innings. That vulnerability nudges this toward YRFI.

Comerica Park · park run factor 100

YRFI lean — the Detroit Tigers push a first-inning run across in 33% of games (9th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
Books price this NRFI at -107 (48% implied); the model has it 46%.
The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 33% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 37% against right-handers.
The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.

ATL@

BAL1:35 PM ET

YRFI lean

Model 47%Book -108 · 49%

Reynaldo LopezRHP

22% NRFI · 9 GS · 1/5 L5

ATL 1st: 31% (#14) · 36% vs hand

Shane BazRHP

58% NRFI · 19 GS · 4/5 L5

BAL 1st: 24% (#26) · 28% vs hand

Reynaldo Lopez is the story here — just a 22% NRFI rate across nine starts and only one scoreless first in his last five outings. Atlanta's offense adds pressure too, scoring in the opening frame 31% of the time and 36% against righties. Baltimore's bats have been quiet early, but Lopez's shaky starts push this one toward a YRFI lean.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · park run factor 100

YRFI lean — the Atlanta Braves push a first-inning run across in 31% of games (14th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
Books price this NRFI at -108 (49% implied); the model has it 47%.
The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 24% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 31% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.

Coin Flips

8— No clear first-inning edge

CHC@

PIT1:35 PM ET

Coin flip

Model 51%Book -116.5 · 51%

Jameson TaillonRHP

64% NRFI · 14 GS · 3/5 L5

CHC 1st: 24% (#24) · 25% vs hand

Braxton AshcraftRHP

74% NRFI · 19 GS · 1/5 L5

PIT 1st: 34% (#8) · 38% vs hand

Braxton Ashcraft's 74% NRFI mark over 19 starts is the sturdiest number on the board, though he's coughed up first-inning runs in four of his last five outings. Working in his favor is a Cubs lineup that scores in the first just 24% of the time and only 25% against righties. The Pirates offense poses more threat, keeping this one right at a 51% flip.

PNC Park · park run factor 98

Coin flip — Braxton Ashcraft's 74% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 34% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
Books price this NRFI at -116.5 (51% implied); the model has it 51%.
The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 34% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 38% against right-handers.
The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 24% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 25% against right-handers.

TOR@

BOS1:35 PM ET

Coin flip

Model 51%Book -141 · 55%

Kevin GausmanRHP

60% NRFI · 20 GS · 2/5 L5

TOR 1st: 24% (#27) · 17% vs hand

Ranger SuarezLHP

69% NRFI · 16 GS · 3/5 L5

BOS 1st: 24% (#25) · 23% vs hand

Ranger Suarez brings the stronger first-inning résumé here, sitting scoreless in 69% of his 16 starts, and he faces a Toronto lineup that plates a run in the first just 17% of the time against lefties. Kevin Gausman's 60% NRFI rate and Fenway's run-friendly 108 park factor keep this from tilting further, landing it at a near coin flip.

Fenway Park · park run factor 108

Coin flip — Ranger Suarez's 69% NRFI is the case for the under; the Boston Red Sox's 24% first-inning bats (25th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
Books price this NRFI at -141 (55% implied); the model has it 51%.
The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 24% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 24% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 17% against left-handers.

ARI@

WSH1:35 PM ET

Coin flip

Model 47% (low)Book +120 · 42%

Kohl DrakeLHP

100% NRFI · 1 GS · 1/1 L5

ARI 1st: 30% (#17) · 32% vs hand

Miles MikolasRHP

71% NRFI · 7 GS · 3/5 L5

WSH 1st: 36% (#2) · 34% vs hand

Kohl Drake's 100% first-inning clean sheet comes with a giant asterisk — it's a single career start, so there's almost nothing to lean on. On the other side, Miles Mikolas has kept the frame scoreless in 71% of his seven starts, but Washington's bats rank second in MLB for first-inning offense. The thin Drake sample keeps this one a genuine coin flip.

Nationals Park · park run factor 102

Coin flip — Miles Mikolas' 71% NRFI is the case for the under; the Washington Nationals' 36% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
Books price this NRFI at +120 (42% implied); the model has it 47%.
The Washington Nationals score in the first in 36% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.
The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 30% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.

LAD@

NYM1:40 PM ET

Coin flip

Model 52%Book -111 · 50%

Emmet SheehanRHP

65% NRFI · 17 GS · 4/5 L5

LAD 1st: 31% (#13) · 30% vs hand

Freddy PeraltaRHP

75% NRFI · 20 GS · 3/5 L5

NYM 1st: 26% (#23) · 23% vs hand

Freddy Peralta's 75% first-inning shutout rate paces this one for the Mets, and Emmet Sheehan backs it with a solid 65% NRFI across 17 starts. Working against the arms: the Dodgers' bats plate a first-inning run 31% of the time, and Citi Field's 96 park factor plays slightly below average. That tension lands it right on a coin flip at 52% scoreless.

Citi Field · park run factor 96

Coin flip — Freddy Peralta's 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 31% first-inning bats (13th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
Books price this NRFI at -111 (50% implied); the model has it 52%.
The New York Mets score in the first in 26% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 23% against right-handers.
The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 31% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.

COL@

MIL2:10 PM ET

Coin flip

Model 52%Book -136 · 54%

Kyle FreelandLHP

65% NRFI · 17 GS · 3/5 L5

COL 1st: 34% (#5) · 33% vs hand

Jacob MisiorowskiRHP

83% NRFI · 18 GS · 3/5 L5

MIL 1st: 28% (#20) · 34% vs hand

Jacob Misiorowski brings the standout number here, holding an 83% first-inning shutout rate across 18 starts, and American Family Field's 94 run factor plays slightly below average. But Colorado's bats crack the scoreboard early 34% of the time — fifth-most in MLB — while Kyle Freeland's more modest 65% NRFI keeps things balanced, landing this one squarely at a coin flip.

American Family Field · park run factor 94

Coin flip — Jacob Misiorowski's 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the Colorado Rockies' 34% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
Books price this NRFI at -136 (54% implied); the model has it 52%.
The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 34% against left-handers.
The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 34% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 33% against right-handers.

CIN@

STL2:15 PM ET

Coin flip

Model 49%Book -111 · 50%

Andrew AbbottLHP

50% NRFI · 20 GS · 2/5 L5

CIN 1st: 27% (#22) · 28% vs hand

Kyle LeahyRHP

83% NRFI · 18 GS · 5/5 L5

STL 1st: 32% (#11) · 37% vs hand

Kyle Leahy has been a first-inning wall for St. Louis, posting an 83% NRFI mark across 18 starts and clean frames in all five of his last outings. The counterweight is Andrew Abbott, whose coin-flip 50% NRFI and 2-of-5 recent scoreless first innings drag Cincinnati back toward even. With Busch playing neutral, the model lands right at 49%.

Busch Stadium · park run factor 100

Coin flip — Kyle Leahy's 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the St. Louis Cardinals' 32% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
Books price this NRFI at -111 (50% implied); the model has it 49%.
The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 32% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 37% against left-handers.
The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 27% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.

SEA@

TEX2:35 PM ET

Coin flip

Model 48%Book -150 · 57%

Logan GilbertRHP

58% NRFI · 19 GS · 4/5 L5

SEA 1st: 28% (#21) · 26% vs hand

Jacob deGromRHP

53% NRFI · 19 GS · 2/5 L5

TEX 1st: 31% (#15) · 29% vs hand

Logan Gilbert brings the sharper first-inning résumé here, sitting scoreless in 58% of his starts and four of his last five, while deGrom has held the fort in just two of his past five openers. Neither offense does much early — Texas plates a first-inning run 29% of the time against righties, Seattle just 26% — yet the model's 48% scoreless read trails the book's 57%, keeping this one genuinely split.

Globe Life Field · park run factor 94

Coin flip — Logan Gilbert's 58% NRFI is the case for the under; the Texas Rangers' 31% first-inning bats (15th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
Books price this NRFI at -150 (57% implied); the model has it 48%.
The Texas Rangers score in the first in 31% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 26% against right-handers.

NYY@

PHI7:20 PM ET

Coin flip

Model 47%Book -120 · 52%

Will WarrenRHP

72% NRFI · 18 GS · 3/5 L5

NYY 1st: 35% (#4) · 42% vs hand

Cristopher SanchezLHP

75% NRFI · 20 GS · 3/5 L5

PHI 1st: 33% (#10) · 30% vs hand

Both starters have kept the first frame clean at high clips — Will Warren at 72% NRFI, Cristopher Sanchez at 75% — which normally tilts toward the under. The catch is the Yankees' bats, who put up a first-inning run 42% of the time against lefties like Sanchez. That tension between strong arms and a dangerous NYY lineup lands this one right at a coin flip, with the model's 47% just under the book's 52%.

Citizens Bank Park · park run factor 102

Coin flip — Cristopher Sanchez's 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Yankees' 35% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
Books price this NRFI at -120 (52% implied); the model has it 47%.
The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
The New York Yankees score in the first in 35% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 42% against left-handers.

First-inning stats are regular-season based. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.

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NRFI Today

Jul 26, 2026 · 15 games

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NRFI / YRFI — FAQ

What is NRFI?

What does YRFI mean?

How often do NRFI bets hit?

How are these NRFI numbers calculated?

Jul 26, 2026 · 15 games

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