NRFI Today
First-inning scoring outlook for today’s MLB slate — every starter’s NRFI rate, team first-inning trends, park factors, and real NRFI odds.
First-inning scoring outlook for today’s MLB slate — every starter’s NRFI rate, team first-inning trends, park factors, and real NRFI odds.
League first inning is scoreless ~48% of the time. Model probability shown per game.


Michael King has kept the first inning clean in 92% of his 12 starts, and he's facing a Padres-friendly Petco Park that suppresses runs (94 park factor) — wait, make that a Reds lineup that scores in the 1st just 26% of the time. The real question is Brady Singer, whose 36% NRFI rate is shaky, but San Diego's first-inning offense ranks 30th in MLB at 17%, which keeps the model leaning scoreless at 56%.


Matching 75% NRFI rates from lefties Foster Griffin and Robbie Ray set the tone at Oracle Park, where the run environment (94 park factor) only helps the pitching side. The Giants have plated a first-inning run in just 25% of games, 25th in MLB, which props up the scoreless case. The model lands at 53%, essentially in line with the book's 54%, so it's a modest NRFI lean rather than a strong edge.


Drew Rasmussen has kept the first inning clean in 73% of his 11 starts, and he draws a Boston lineup that scores in the 1st just 19% of the time — 27th in MLB. The catch is the other side: Tampa Bay crosses early in 37% of games, and Jake Bennett's perfect NRFI mark covers only two starts. That tension keeps this a modest NRFI lean at pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field.


Coors Field and its 128 run factor loom large over a matchup that otherwise looks pitcher-friendly. Shota Imanaga and Michael Lorenzen each carry 75% NRFI rates, but the Rockies plate a first-inning run in 33% of games and bump that to 43% against lefties like Imanaga. The model leans YRFI at 54%, a touch stronger than the book's pricing suggests.


Mike Paredes makes his first start of the season for the Twins, and that blank slate is the wild card against a Tigers lineup that scores in the first 33% of the time — 39% against righties. Minnesota, meanwhile, plates a first-inning run in 43% of games versus lefties like Framber Valdez. The model leans YRFI at 47% scoreless, though the thin Paredes sample keeps confidence modest.


Parker Messick has kept the first inning scoreless in all 13 of his starts, but he's never faced a tougher test than the Yankees, who score in the opening frame 41% of the time — the highest rate in baseball — and 47% against lefties. That collision of an unblemished streak and an elite first-inning offense is why the model lands at 53% NRFI, essentially matching the book at 54%. A true coin flip, even with pitcher-friendly Progressive Field in the mix.


George Kirby and Brandon Young arrive with identical 67% NRFI rates, but the lineups they're facing couldn't be more different. Baltimore plates a first-inning run in just 19% of games, 28th in MLB, while Seattle does it 36% of the time, fifth-most. Those forces roughly cancel out — the model lands at 51% scoreless, right on top of the market's 50%.


Ryne Nelson has been a first-inning stopper, posting zeroes in 10 of 12 starts including all five of his last outings — but the other side of this game is murky. Ryan Gusto allowed a first-inning run in his lone start, and Miami plates an early run 35% of the time, seventh-most in MLB. With Gusto's sample so thin, the 49% scoreless projection is genuinely a coin flip.


Shohei Ohtani hasn't allowed a first-inning run in any of his 10 starts, but he draws a Pirates lineup that scores in the 1st 41% of the time, second-most in MLB. The other side hinges on Jared Jones, whose two-start sample tells us little. With the model at 48% scoreless versus the book's 54%, this genuinely sits near a coin flip.


Jesus Luzardo has been a first-inning wall, posting a 92% NRFI rate across 12 starts and keeping the opening frame clean in all five of his last outings — and Toronto's lineup scores in the 1st just 13% of the time against lefties. The problem is the other side: Max Scherzer sits at 40% NRFI while Philadelphia plates a first-inning run in 41% of games versus righties. That tug-of-war is why the model lands at 52% scoreless — a true coin flip.


Austin Warren's spotless NRFI record covers exactly one start, so there's not much to lean on from the Mets' side of the mound. Andre Pallante has been a true 50/50 across 12 outings, and while pitcher-friendly Citi Field and two quiet first-inning lineups (27% for New York, 25% for St. Louis) nudge toward zeros, the model's 52% scoreless call sits right on the fence with low confidence.


Chris Sale and Davis Martin have been mirror images in the first inning — both sit at 82% NRFI over 11 starts and have kept the opening frame clean in four of their last five. The catch is the offenses: Atlanta plates a first-inning run in 35% of games, sixth-most in MLB, and the White Sox have scored 47% of the time against lefties. That tension keeps the model at a near-even 51% scoreless.


MacKenzie Gore has kept the first inning clean in 67% of his starts, but Seth Lugo's coin-flip 50% NRFI rate is what keeps this one balanced. Neither lineup scares much early — Kansas City scores in the first just 29% of the time, Texas 26% — yet Lugo's shakiness offsets Gore's steadiness. The model lands at 49% scoreless, essentially a toss-up.


Brandon Sproat has been a first-inning stalwart, posting a 78% NRFI rate across nine starts including four of his last five. The wild card is Jack Perkins, who allowed a first-inning run in his only start — far too thin a sample to trust either way. The model sits at 48% scoreless, well above the 33% the market implies, but low confidence keeps this a genuine coin flip.


Peter Lambert and Reid Detmers have both kept the first inning clean at strong rates — 78% and 75% NRFI, respectively — but the lineups push right back. Houston scores in the 1st in 37% of games, third-most in MLB, and the Angels aren't far behind at 33%. With the model at just 47% scoreless, this profiles as a genuine coin flip.
First-inning stats are regular-season based. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
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