NRFI Today
First-inning scoring outlook for today’s MLB slate — every starter’s NRFI rate, team first-inning trends, park factors, and real NRFI odds.
Jun 10, 2026 · 15 games
League first inning is scoreless ~48% of the time. Model probability shown per game.
NRFI Leans
3— First inning likely stays scoreless
NRFI leanModel 56%Book -130 · 53%
Brady SingerRHP
36% NRFI · 11 GS · 2/5 L5
CIN 1st: 26% (#21) · 18% vs hand
Michael KingRHP
92% NRFI · 12 GS · 4/5 L5
SD 1st: 17% (#30) · 16% vs hand
Michael King has kept the first inning clean in 92% of his 12 starts, and he's facing a Padres-friendly Petco Park that suppresses runs (94 park factor) — wait, make that a Reds lineup that scores in the 1st just 26% of the time. The real question is Brady Singer, whose 36% NRFI rate is shaky, but San Diego's first-inning offense ranks 30th in MLB at 17%, which keeps the model leaning scoreless at 56%.
Petco Park · park run factor 94
- NRFI lean — Michael King has worked a scoreless first in 92% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
- Books price this NRFI at -130 (53% implied); the model has it 56%.
- The San Diego Padres score in the first in 17% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 16% against right-handers.
- The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 26% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 18% against right-handers.
NRFI leanModel 53%Book -136 · 54%
Foster GriffinLHP
75% NRFI · 12 GS · 4/5 L5
WSH 1st: 33% (#13) · 27% vs hand
Robbie RayLHP
75% NRFI · 12 GS · 3/5 L5
SF 1st: 25% (#25) · 33% vs hand
Matching 75% NRFI rates from lefties Foster Griffin and Robbie Ray set the tone at Oracle Park, where the run environment (94 park factor) only helps the pitching side. The Giants have plated a first-inning run in just 25% of games, 25th in MLB, which props up the scoreless case. The model lands at 53%, essentially in line with the book's 54%, so it's a modest NRFI lean rather than a strong edge.
Oracle Park · park run factor 94
- NRFI lean — Foster Griffin (75% NRFI) and Robbie Ray (75%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -136 (54% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 25% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 33% against left-handers.
- The Washington Nationals score in the first in 33% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.
NRFI leanModel 53% (low)Book -128 · 53%
Jake BennettLHP
100% NRFI · 2 GS · 2/2 L5
BOS 1st: 19% (#27) · 14% vs hand
Drew RasmussenRHP
73% NRFI · 11 GS · 4/5 L5
TB 1st: 37% (#4) · 46% vs hand
Drew Rasmussen has kept the first inning clean in 73% of his 11 starts, and he draws a Boston lineup that scores in the 1st just 19% of the time — 27th in MLB. The catch is the other side: Tampa Bay crosses early in 37% of games, and Jake Bennett's perfect NRFI mark covers only two starts. That tension keeps this a modest NRFI lean at pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field.
Tropicana Field · park run factor 95
- NRFI lean — Drew Rasmussen has worked a scoreless first in 73% of his starts, the headline edge in a quiet matchup.
- Books price this NRFI at -128 (53% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 37% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 46% against left-handers.
- The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 19% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 14% against right-handers.
YRFI Leans
2— A first-inning run looks likely
YRFI leanModel 46%Book +130 · 41%
Shota ImanagaLHP
75% NRFI · 12 GS · 4/5 L5
CHC 1st: 17% (#29) · 18% vs hand
Michael LorenzenRHP
75% NRFI · 12 GS · 4/5 L5
COL 1st: 33% (#9) · 43% vs hand
Coors Field and its 128 run factor loom large over a matchup that otherwise looks pitcher-friendly. Shota Imanaga and Michael Lorenzen each carry 75% NRFI rates, but the Rockies plate a first-inning run in 33% of games and bump that to 43% against lefties like Imanaga. The model leans YRFI at 54%, a touch stronger than the book's pricing suggests.
Coors Field · park run factor 128
- YRFI lean — Coors Field (run factor 128) is one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, and the Colorado Rockies score early in 33% of games.
- Books price this NRFI at +130 (41% implied); the model has it 46%.
- The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 33% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 43% against left-handers.
- The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 17% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 18% against right-handers.
YRFI leanModel 47% (low)Book —
Mike ParedesRHP
No season starts
MIN 1st: 33% (#12) · 43% vs hand
Framber ValdezLHP
58% NRFI · 12 GS · 3/5 L5
DET 1st: 33% (#11) · 39% vs hand
Mike Paredes makes his first start of the season for the Twins, and that blank slate is the wild card against a Tigers lineup that scores in the first 33% of the time — 39% against righties. Minnesota, meanwhile, plates a first-inning run in 43% of games versus lefties like Framber Valdez. The model leans YRFI at 47% scoreless, though the thin Paredes sample keeps confidence modest.
Comerica Park · park run factor 100
- YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 33% of games (12th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 33% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 39% against right-handers.
- The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 33% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 43% against left-handers.
- Framber Valdez has kept the first inning scoreless in 7 of 12 starts this season (58% NRFI).
Coin Flips
10— No clear first-inning edge
Coin flipModel 53%Book -132 · 54%
Carlos RodonLHP
60% NRFI · 5 GS · 3/5 L5
NYY 1st: 41% (#1) · 47% vs hand
Parker MessickLHP
100% NRFI · 13 GS · 5/5 L5
CLE 1st: 25% (#24) · 25% vs hand
Parker Messick has kept the first inning scoreless in all 13 of his starts, but he's never faced a tougher test than the Yankees, who score in the opening frame 41% of the time — the highest rate in baseball — and 47% against lefties. That collision of an unblemished streak and an elite first-inning offense is why the model lands at 53% NRFI, essentially matching the book at 54%. A true coin flip, even with pitcher-friendly Progressive Field in the mix.
Progressive Field · park run factor 94
- Coin flip — Parker Messick's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Yankees' 41% first-inning bats (most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -132 (54% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 25% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 25% against left-handers.
- The New York Yankees score in the first in 41% of games, the most in MLB, 47% against left-handers.
Coin flipModel 51%Book -115 · 50%
George KirbyRHP
67% NRFI · 12 GS · 2/5 L5
SEA 1st: 36% (#5) · 32% vs hand
Brandon YoungRHP
67% NRFI · 9 GS · 4/5 L5
BAL 1st: 19% (#28) · 19% vs hand
George Kirby and Brandon Young arrive with identical 67% NRFI rates, but the lineups they're facing couldn't be more different. Baltimore plates a first-inning run in just 19% of games, 28th in MLB, while Seattle does it 36% of the time, fifth-most. Those forces roughly cancel out — the model lands at 51% scoreless, right on top of the market's 50%.
Oriole Park at Camden Yards · park run factor 100
- Coin flip — George Kirby's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Seattle Mariners' 36% first-inning bats (5th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -115 (50% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 19% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 19% against right-handers.
- The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 36% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
Coin flipModel 49% (low)Book -106 · 49%
Ryne NelsonRHP
83% NRFI · 12 GS · 5/5 L5
ARI 1st: 29% (#19) · 21% vs hand
Ryan GustoRHP
0% NRFI · 1 GS · 0/1 L5
MIA 1st: 35% (#7) · 36% vs hand
Ryne Nelson has been a first-inning stopper, posting zeroes in 10 of 12 starts including all five of his last outings — but the other side of this game is murky. Ryan Gusto allowed a first-inning run in his lone start, and Miami plates an early run 35% of the time, seventh-most in MLB. With Gusto's sample so thin, the 49% scoreless projection is genuinely a coin flip.
loanDepot park · park run factor 102
- Coin flip — Ryne Nelson's 83% NRFI is the case for the under; the Miami Marlins' 35% first-inning bats (7th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -106 (49% implied); the model has it 49%.
- The Miami Marlins score in the first in 35% of games, 7th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
- The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 29% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 21% against right-handers.
Coin flipModel 48% (low)Book -132 · 54%
Shohei OhtaniRHP
100% NRFI · 10 GS · 5/5 L5
LAD 1st: 33% (#10) · 38% vs hand
Jared JonesRHP
50% NRFI · 2 GS · 1/2 L5
PIT 1st: 41% (#2) · 41% vs hand
Shohei Ohtani hasn't allowed a first-inning run in any of his 10 starts, but he draws a Pirates lineup that scores in the 1st 41% of the time, second-most in MLB. The other side hinges on Jared Jones, whose two-start sample tells us little. With the model at 48% scoreless versus the book's 54%, this genuinely sits near a coin flip.
PNC Park · park run factor 98
- Coin flip — Shohei Ohtani's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Pittsburgh Pirates' 41% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -132 (54% implied); the model has it 48%.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 41% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 41% against right-handers.
- The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 33% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 38% against right-handers.
Coin flipModel 52%Book +102 · 47%
Jesus LuzardoLHP
92% NRFI · 12 GS · 5/5 L5
PHI 1st: 32% (#16) · 41% vs hand
Max ScherzerRHP
40% NRFI · 5 GS · 2/5 L5
TOR 1st: 23% (#26) · 13% vs hand
Jesus Luzardo has been a first-inning wall, posting a 92% NRFI rate across 12 starts and keeping the opening frame clean in all five of his last outings — and Toronto's lineup scores in the 1st just 13% of the time against lefties. The problem is the other side: Max Scherzer sits at 40% NRFI while Philadelphia plates a first-inning run in 41% of games versus righties. That tug-of-war is why the model lands at 52% scoreless — a true coin flip.
Rogers Centre · park run factor 100
- Coin flip — Jesus Luzardo's 92% NRFI is the case for the under; the Philadelphia Phillies' 32% first-inning bats (16th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at +102 (47% implied); the model has it 52%.
- The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 23% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 13% against left-handers.
- The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 32% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 41% against right-handers.
Coin flipModel 52% (low)Book -132 · 54%
Andre PallanteRHP
50% NRFI · 12 GS · 3/5 L5
STL 1st: 25% (#23) · 20% vs hand
Austin WarrenRHP
100% NRFI · 1 GS · 1/1 L5
NYM 1st: 27% (#20) · 21% vs hand
Austin Warren's spotless NRFI record covers exactly one start, so there's not much to lean on from the Mets' side of the mound. Andre Pallante has been a true 50/50 across 12 outings, and while pitcher-friendly Citi Field and two quiet first-inning lineups (27% for New York, 25% for St. Louis) nudge toward zeros, the model's 52% scoreless call sits right on the fence with low confidence.
Citi Field · park run factor 96
- Coin flip — Andre Pallante's 50% NRFI is the case for the under; the New York Mets' 27% first-inning bats (20th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -132 (54% implied); the model has it 52%.
- The New York Mets score in the first in 27% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 21% against right-handers.
- The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 25% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 20% against right-handers.
Coin flipModel 51%Book -136 · 54%
Chris SaleLHP
82% NRFI · 11 GS · 4/5 L5
ATL 1st: 35% (#6) · 35% vs hand
Davis MartinRHP
82% NRFI · 11 GS · 4/5 L5
CHW 1st: 31% (#17) · 47% vs hand
Chris Sale and Davis Martin have been mirror images in the first inning — both sit at 82% NRFI over 11 starts and have kept the opening frame clean in four of their last five. The catch is the offenses: Atlanta plates a first-inning run in 35% of games, sixth-most in MLB, and the White Sox have scored 47% of the time against lefties. That tension keeps the model at a near-even 51% scoreless.
Rate Field · park run factor 98
- Coin flip — Chris Sale's 82% NRFI is the case for the under; the Atlanta Braves' 35% first-inning bats (6th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -136 (54% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 47% against left-handers.
- The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 35% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.
Coin flipModel 49%Book -104 · 48%
MacKenzie GoreLHP
67% NRFI · 12 GS · 3/5 L5
TEX 1st: 26% (#22) · 24% vs hand
Seth LugoRHP
50% NRFI · 12 GS · 2/5 L5
KC 1st: 29% (#18) · 29% vs hand
MacKenzie Gore has kept the first inning clean in 67% of his starts, but Seth Lugo's coin-flip 50% NRFI rate is what keeps this one balanced. Neither lineup scares much early — Kansas City scores in the first just 29% of the time, Texas 26% — yet Lugo's shakiness offsets Gore's steadiness. The model lands at 49% scoreless, essentially a toss-up.
Kauffman Stadium · park run factor 102
- Coin flip — MacKenzie Gore's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Kansas City Royals' 29% first-inning bats (18th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -104 (48% implied); the model has it 49%.
- The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 29% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
- The Texas Rangers score in the first in 26% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
Coin flipModel 48% (low)Book +190 · 33%
Brandon SproatRHP
78% NRFI · 9 GS · 4/5 L5
MIL 1st: 33% (#14) · 32% vs hand
Jack PerkinsRHP
0% NRFI · 1 GS · 0/1 L5
OAK 1st: 32% (#15) · 35% vs hand
Brandon Sproat has been a first-inning stalwart, posting a 78% NRFI rate across nine starts including four of his last five. The wild card is Jack Perkins, who allowed a first-inning run in his only start — far too thin a sample to trust either way. The model sits at 48% scoreless, well above the 33% the market implies, but low confidence keeps this a genuine coin flip.
Las Vegas Ballpark · park run factor 100
- Coin flip — Brandon Sproat's 78% NRFI is the case for the under; the Milwaukee Brewers' 33% first-inning bats (14th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at +190 (33% implied); the model has it 48%.
- The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 32% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.
- The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 33% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 32% against right-handers.
Coin flipModel 47%Book -125 · 52%
Peter LambertRHP
78% NRFI · 9 GS · 4/5 L5
HOU 1st: 37% (#3) · 23% vs hand
Reid DetmersLHP
75% NRFI · 12 GS · 3/5 L5
LAA 1st: 33% (#8) · 36% vs hand
Peter Lambert and Reid Detmers have both kept the first inning clean at strong rates — 78% and 75% NRFI, respectively — but the lineups push right back. Houston scores in the 1st in 37% of games, third-most in MLB, and the Angels aren't far behind at 33%. With the model at just 47% scoreless, this profiles as a genuine coin flip.
Angel Stadium · park run factor 102
- Coin flip — Peter Lambert's 78% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 37% first-inning bats (3rd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 33% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
- The Houston Astros score in the first in 37% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 23% against left-handers.
First-inning stats are regular-season based. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
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