NRFI Today
First-inning scoring outlook for today’s MLB slate — every starter’s NRFI rate, team first-inning trends, park factors, and real NRFI odds.
Sep 9, 2026 · 15 games
League first inning is scoreless ~49% of the time. Model probability shown per game.
NRFI Leans
5— First inning likely stays scoreless
T-Mobile Park · park run factor 83
- NRFI lean — Cody Bradford (67% NRFI) and Kade Anderson (67%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -125 (52% implied); the model has it 55%.
- The Seattle Mariners score in the first in 31% of games, 12th-most in MLB, 29% against left-handers.
- The Texas Rangers score in the first in 28% of games, 18th-most in MLB, 23% against left-handers.
Petco Park · park run factor 94
- NRFI lean — Jackson Kent (60% NRFI) and Walker Buehler (79%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -109 (49% implied); the model has it 55%.
- The San Diego Padres score in the first in 25% of games, 29th-most in MLB, 32% against left-handers.
- The Washington Nationals score in the first in 29% of games, 16th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
American Family Field · park run factor 94
- NRFI lean — Kevin Gausman (68% NRFI) and Logan Henderson (87%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -131.5 (53% implied); the model has it 54%.
- The Milwaukee Brewers score in the first in 30% of games, 14th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
- The Chicago Cubs score in the first in 27% of games, 24th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
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Oriole Park at Camden Yards · park run factor 100
- NRFI lean — Foster Griffin (81% NRFI) and Shane Baz (63%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -123.5 (95% implied); the model has it 54%.
- The Baltimore Orioles score in the first in 25% of games, 28th-most in MLB, 16% against left-handers.
- The Cleveland Guardians score in the first in 27% of games, 25th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
loanDepot park · park run factor 102
- NRFI lean — Robert Stock (83% NRFI) and Janson Junk (86%) have both buried the first inning, and neither lineup gets going early.
- Books price this NRFI at -104 (48% implied); the model has it 53%.
- The Miami Marlins score in the first in 28% of games, 20th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
- The New York Mets score in the first in 29% of games, 17th-most in MLB, 27% against right-handers.
YRFI Leans
2— A first-inning run looks likely
Kauffman Stadium · park run factor 102
- YRFI lean — the Kansas City Royals push a first-inning run across in 32% of games (6th-most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -109 (49% implied); the model has it 44%.
- The Kansas City Royals score in the first in 32% of games, 6th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
- The Arizona Diamondbacks score in the first in 28% of games, 21st-most in MLB, 25% against left-handers.
Comerica Park · park run factor 100
- YRFI lean — the Minnesota Twins push a first-inning run across in 37% of games (most in MLB), hard to keep off the board early.
- Books price this NRFI at -102 (48% implied); the model has it 44%.
- The Detroit Tigers score in the first in 34% of games, 3rd-most in MLB, 35% against right-handers.
- The Minnesota Twins score in the first in 37% of games, the most in MLB, 39% against right-handers.
Coin Flips
8— No clear first-inning edge
Sutter Health Park · park run factor 117
- Coin flip — Braydon Fisher's 100% NRFI is the case for the under; the Oakland Athletics' 28% first-inning bats (19th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at +101 (47% implied); the model has it 50%.
- The Oakland Athletics score in the first in 28% of games, 19th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
- The Toronto Blue Jays score in the first in 24% of games, 30th-most in MLB, 20% against left-handers.
Oracle Park · park run factor 94
- Coin flip — Andre Pallante's 64% NRFI is the case for the under; the St. Louis Cardinals' 30% first-inning bats (15th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -113 (50% implied); the model has it 50%.
- The San Francisco Giants score in the first in 27% of games, 26th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
- The St. Louis Cardinals score in the first in 30% of games, 15th-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
Citizens Bank Park · park run factor 102
- Coin flip — Hunter Brown's 80% NRFI is the case for the under; the Houston Astros' 34% first-inning bats (2nd-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -128 (53% implied); the model has it 49%.
- The Philadelphia Phillies score in the first in 33% of games, 5th-most in MLB, 28% against right-handers.
- The Houston Astros score in the first in 34% of games, 2nd-most in MLB, 27% against left-handers.
Fenway Park · park run factor 108
- Coin flip — Jake Bennett's 88% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Angels' 34% first-inning bats (4th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at +102 (47% implied); the model has it 51%.
- The Boston Red Sox score in the first in 26% of games, 27th-most in MLB, 24% against right-handers.
- The Los Angeles Angels score in the first in 34% of games, 4th-most in MLB, 36% against left-handers.
Yankee Stadium · park run factor 100
- Coin flip — Will Warren's 68% NRFI is the case for the under; the Colorado Rockies' 31% first-inning bats (9th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at +4 (63% implied); the model has it 47%.
- The New York Yankees score in the first in 28% of games, 23rd-most in MLB, 22% against right-handers.
- The Colorado Rockies score in the first in 31% of games, 9th-most in MLB, 29% against right-handers.
Starter TBD
Awaiting probable starter
Truist Park · park run factor 102
- Coin flip — Griffin Jax's 68% NRFI is the case for the under; the Tampa Bay Rays' 32% first-inning bats (7th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -115 (50% implied).
- The Atlanta Braves score in the first in 30% of games, 13th-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
- The Tampa Bay Rays score in the first in 32% of games, 7th-most in MLB.
Rate Field · park run factor 98
- Coin flip — Lake Bachar's 75% NRFI is the case for the under; the Chicago White Sox's 31% first-inning bats (8th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -109 (49% implied); the model has it 50%.
- The Chicago White Sox score in the first in 31% of games, 8th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates score in the first in 31% of games, 10th-most in MLB, 36% against right-handers.
Dodger Stadium · park run factor 102
- Coin flip — Yoshinobu Yamamoto's 67% NRFI is the case for the under; the Los Angeles Dodgers' 31% first-inning bats (11th-most in MLB) are the case for the over.
- Books price this NRFI at -114.5 (50% implied); the model has it 48%.
- The Los Angeles Dodgers score in the first in 31% of games, 11th-most in MLB, 31% against right-handers.
- The Cincinnati Reds score in the first in 28% of games, 22nd-most in MLB, 30% against right-handers.
First-inning stats are regular-season based. Verdicts are informational, not betting advice.
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