Start Harrison Mevis over Jake Bates — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Mevis — the consensus rank and projection edges are too wide to ignore.

Harrison Mevis is the higher consensus play (K6 to K9) and projects 9.4 to Bates's 8.7. Bates's edge is the game script, 27.8 implied points to 25.8. The gap is narrow.

Harrison Mevis

K6LARvs SF

9.49.49.4 Projected Points

Start

Jake Bates

K9DETvs NO

8.78.78.7 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Harrison Mevis

Start

Place kicker with strong-leg profile. Limited NFL sample in spot-duty role.

Start — K6 by consensus, projects K4 this week: 1.6 red-zone stalls a game, and 9.4 pts projected vs SF.

2.0 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
LAR's offense stalls in the red zone 1.6 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has LAR at 25.8 points as 3-point favorites.
92% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 1 game.

Why Jake Bates

Toss-Up

Starting placekicker. Strong-legged kicker with deep range on field-goal attempts.

Toss-up — K9 by consensus, projects K8 this week: kicks indoors, and 1.4 red-zone stalls a game.

Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
DET's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has DET at 27.8 points as 7-point favorites.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Harrison Mevis	Jake Bates
Projected points	9.49.49.4	8.78.78.7
Consensus rank	K6	K9
Projected FG attempts	2.0	1.9
Red-zone stalls / game	1.6(2025)	1.4(2025)
Kicking conditions	—	Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread	25.8-3.0	27.8-7.0
Field-goal %	92.3%(2025)	79.4%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	—	0–0+1 toss-up