Cam Little or Jake Bates: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Cam Little and Jake Bates grade out even this week. Little's best edge is the consensus rank (K7 to K9), Bates's best edge is the game script (27.8 implied points to 24.0) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Cam Little

K7JAXvs CLE

8.88.88.8 Projected Points

Start

Jake Bates

K9DETvs NO

8.78.78.7 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Cam Little

Start

Starting K with strong leg. Full-time placekicker with long-range range.

Start — K7 consensus and projection: 1.6 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.8 pts projected vs CLE.

2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
JAX's offense stalls in the red zone 1.6 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has JAX at 24 points as 7.5-point favorites.
88% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 6 games.

Why Jake Bates

Toss-Up

Starting placekicker. Strong-legged kicker with deep range on field-goal attempts.

Toss-up — K9 by consensus, projects K8 this week: kicks indoors, and 1.4 red-zone stalls a game.

Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
DET's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has DET at 27.8 points as 7-point favorites.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Cam Little	Jake Bates
Projected points	8.88.88.8	8.78.78.7
Consensus rank	K7	K9
Projected FG attempts	2.1	1.9
Red-zone stalls / game	1.6(2025)	1.4(2025)
Kicking conditions	—	Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread	24.0-7.5	27.8-7.0
Field-goal %	88.2%(2025)	79.4%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	—	0–0+1 toss-up