Harrison Butker or Jake Bates: Who Should You Start?
Preliminary board2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Verdicts sharpen as practice reports land.
Start Bates — the game script and consensus rank edges are too wide to ignore.
Jake Bates plays in the better game script (27.8 implied team points to 22.5) and is the higher consensus play (K9 to K10). Butker's edge is attempt volume, 2.1 to 1.9 projected attempts. The gap is narrow.
Harrison Butker
8.58.58.5 Projected Points
Jake Bates
8.78.78.7 Projected Points
Why Harrison Butker
Toss-UpVeteran starting K. Reliable leg with proven big-game accuracy.
Toss-up — K10 by consensus, projects K12 this week: 1.5 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.5 pts projected vs DEN.
- 2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
- KC's offense stalls in the red zone 1.5 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has KC at 22.5 points as 2.5-point favorites.
- 87% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 5 games.
Latest on Butker
Seattle Seahawks vs. Kansas City Chiefs Game Highlights
ESPN · Aug 28, 2026
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Jake Bates
Toss-UpStarting placekicker. Strong-legged kicker with deep range on field-goal attempts.
Toss-up — K9 by consensus, projects K8 this week: kicks indoors, and 1.4 red-zone stalls a game.
- Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
- 1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
- DET's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has DET at 27.8 points as 7-point favorites.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Harrison Butker | Jake Bates |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 8.58.58.5 | 8.78.78.7 |
| Consensus rank | K10 | K9 |
| Projected FG attempts | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Red-zone stalls / game | 1.5(2025) | 1.4(2025) |
| Kicking conditions | — | Indoors, no weather risk |
| Implied total · spread | 22.5-2.5 | 27.8-7.0 |
| Field-goal % | 86.8%(2025) | 79.4%(2025) |
| Depth chart | K1 | K1 |
| Start/Sit record | 0–0+1 toss-up | 0–0+1 toss-up |
Signal breakdown
- 8.5 vs 8.7 projected PPR pointsJake Bates +
- Rank 10 vs 9Jake Bates +
- 2.1 vs 1.9 projected attemptsHarrison Butker +
- 1.5 vs 1.4 red-zone stalls per gameHarrison Butker +
- Kicking weathereven
- Implied 22.5 vs 27.8 team pointsJake Bates +
- No injury designationseven
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