Cairo Santos or Harrison Butker: Who Should You Start?
Preliminary board2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Verdicts sharpen as practice reports land.
Too close to call — the edges cancel out.
Cairo Santos and Harrison Butker grade out even this week. Santos's best edge is the game script (23.5 implied points to 22.5), Butker's best edge is red-zone opportunity (1.5 to 1.4 stalls per game) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.
Cairo Santos
8.38.38.3 Projected Points
Harrison Butker
8.58.58.5 Projected Points
Why Cairo Santos
SitVeteran starting K. Reliable mid-to-long range placekicker with consistent accuracy.
Sit — K11 by consensus, projects K16 this week: 1.4 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.3 pts projected vs CAR.
- 2.0 FG tries projected, right at the 2.0 league median this week.
- CHI's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has CHI at 23.5 points as 2.5-point favorites.
- 83% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 3 games.
Why Harrison Butker
Toss-UpVeteran starting K. Reliable leg with proven big-game accuracy.
Toss-up — K10 by consensus, projects K12 this week: 1.5 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.5 pts projected vs DEN.
- 2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
- KC's offense stalls in the red zone 1.5 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has KC at 22.5 points as 2.5-point favorites.
- 87% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 5 games.
Latest on Butker
Seattle Seahawks vs. Kansas City Chiefs Game Highlights
ESPN · Aug 28, 2026
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Cairo Santos | Harrison Butker |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 8.38.38.3 | 8.58.58.5 |
| Consensus rank | K11 | K10 |
| Projected FG attempts | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Red-zone stalls / game | 1.4(2025) | 1.5(2025) |
| Implied total · spread | 23.5-2.5 | 22.5-2.5 |
| Field-goal % | 83.3%(2025) | 86.8%(2025) |
| Depth chart | K1 | K1 |
| Start/Sit record | — | 0–0+1 toss-up |
Signal breakdown
- 8.3 vs 8.5 projected PPR pointsHarrison Butker +
- Rank 11 vs 10Harrison Butker +
- 2.0 vs 2.1 projected attemptsHarrison Butker +
- 1.4 vs 1.5 red-zone stalls per gameHarrison Butker +
- Kicking weathereven
- Implied 23.5 vs 22.5 team pointsCairo Santos +
- No injury designationseven
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