Cairo Santos or Will Reichard: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Cairo Santos and Will Reichard grade out even this week. Santos's best edge is the game script (23.5 implied points to 21.5), Reichard's best edge is the projection (8.4 to 8.3) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Cairo Santos

K11CHIvs CAR

8.38.38.3 Projected Points

Sit

Will Reichard

K12MINvs GB

8.48.48.4 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Cairo Santos

Sit

Veteran starting K. Reliable mid-to-long range placekicker with consistent accuracy.

Sit — K11 by consensus, projects K16 this week: 1.4 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.3 pts projected vs CAR.

2.0 FG tries projected, right at the 2.0 league median this week.
CHI's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has CHI at 23.5 points as 2.5-point favorites.
83% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 3 games.

Why Will Reichard

Toss-Up

Starting placekicker and 2025 First-Team All-Pro. Strong-legged third-year kicker with franchise-record 62-yard make.

Toss-up — K12 by consensus, projects K14 this week: kicks indoors, and 1.3 red-zone stalls a game.

Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
MIN's offense stalls in the red zone 1.3 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has MIN at 21.5 points as 1.5-point dogs.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Cairo Santos	Will Reichard
Projected points	8.38.38.3	8.48.48.4
Consensus rank	K11	K12
Projected FG attempts	2.0	2.1
Red-zone stalls / game	1.4(2025)	1.3(2025)
Kicking conditions	—	Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread	23.5-2.5	21.5+1.5
Field-goal %	83.3%(2025)	94.3%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1