Cairo Santos or Chris Boswell: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Cairo Santos and Chris Boswell grade out even this week. Santos's best edge is the consensus rank (K11 to K12), Boswell's best edge is the projection (9.0 to 8.3) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Cairo Santos

K11CHIvs CAR

8.38.38.3 Projected Points

Sit

Chris Boswell

K12PITvs ATL

9.09.09.0 Projected Points

Start

Why Cairo Santos

Sit

Veteran starting K. Reliable mid-to-long range placekicker with consistent accuracy.

Sit — K11 by consensus, projects K16 this week: 1.4 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.3 pts projected vs CAR.

2.0 FG tries projected, right at the 2.0 league median this week.
CHI's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has CHI at 23.5 points as 2.5-point favorites.
83% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 3 games.

Why Chris Boswell

Start

Veteran starting K and Pro Bowl-caliber leg. Reliable long-range accuracy.

Start — K12 by consensus, projects K6 this week: 1.2 red-zone stalls a game, and 9.0 pts projected vs ATL.

2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
PIT's offense stalls in the red zone 1.2 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has PIT at 22.8 points as 3-point favorites.
84% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 6 games.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Cairo Santos	Chris Boswell
Projected points	8.38.38.3	9.09.09.0
Consensus rank	K11	K12
Projected FG attempts	2.0	2.1
Red-zone stalls / game	1.4(2025)	1.2(2025)
Implied total · spread	23.5-2.5	22.8-3.0
Field-goal %	83.3%(2025)	84.4%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1