Chase McLaughlin or Evan McPherson: Who Should You Start?

Preliminary board

2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Verdicts sharpen as practice reports land.

Same Game, Mirrored Roles: McLaughlin and McPherson Level Out

Tampa Bay and Cincinnati face off, which means these two kickers are staring at the exact same game from opposite sidelines — and it produces almost identical value. McLaughlin's offense scores less overall but stalls in the red zone more often, which actually protects his attempt count even as the Bucs struggle to finish drives. McPherson's Bengals project for more points, but that scoring comes from touchdowns rather than field-goal tries, which caps his upside despite the gaudier team total. The margins here are inside the noise for both accuracy and volume, so either kicker is a fine start with almost no separation between them.

What flips it: A shift in either team's red-zone efficiency — more stalls for Cincinnati or fewer for Tampa Bay — would flip the lean.

AI editor

Chase McLaughlin

Chase McLaughlin

K15TBvs CIN

Projected Points

Toss-Up
Evan McPherson

Evan McPherson

K14CINvs TB

Projected Points

Start

Why Chase McLaughlin

Toss-Up

Veteran starting placekicker. Reliable leg with strong field-goal accuracy.

Toss-up — K15 by consensus and projection: 1.4 red-zone stalls per game in 2025, 8.4 PPR projected vs CIN.

  • Tampa Bay's tendency to stall in the red zone keeps McLaughlin's leg relevant even with the lower point total.
  • His accuracy has held steady on higher volume, so more red-zone trips mean more chances rather than more risk.

Why Evan McPherson

Start

Starting K with proven big-leg range. Reliable from distance in clutch situations.

Start — K14 consensus, projects K11 this week: 1.1 red-zone stalls per game in 2025, 8.5 PPR projected vs TB.

  • Cincinnati's larger implied total mostly reflects touchdowns finishing drives, which trims his own attempt upside.
  • His range and accuracy make him the safer bet if Cincinnati does need a kick from distance late.

Head-to-head stats

MetricChase McLaughlinEvan McPherson
Projected points
Consensus rankK15K14
Projected FG attempts2.01.9
Red-zone stalls / game1.4(2025)1.1(2025)
Implied total · spread23.5+3.527.0-3.5
Field-goal %84.2%(2025)89.3%(2025)
Depth chartK1K1
Start/Sit record00+1 toss-up

Signal breakdown

  • 8.4 vs 8.5 projected PPR pointsEvan McPherson +
  • Rank 15 vs 14Evan McPherson +
  • 2.0 vs 1.9 projected attemptsChase McLaughlin +
  • 1.4 vs 1.1 red-zone stalls per gameChase McLaughlin +
  • Kicking weathereven
  • Implied 23.5 vs 27.0 team pointsEvan McPherson +
  • No injury designationseven

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