Evan McPherson or Will Reichard: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Evan McPherson and Will Reichard grade out even this week. McPherson's best edge is the game script (27.0 implied points to 21.5), Reichard's best edge is red-zone opportunity (1.3 to 1.1 stalls per game) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Evan McPherson

K14CINvs TB

8.58.58.5 Projected Points

Start

Will Reichard

K12MINvs GB

8.48.48.4 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Evan McPherson

Start

Starting K with proven big-leg range. Reliable from distance in clutch situations.

Start — K14 by consensus, projects K11 this week: 1.1 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.5 pts projected vs TB.

1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
CIN's offense stalls in the red zone 1.1 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has CIN at 27 points as 3.5-point favorites.
89% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 4 games.

Why Will Reichard

Toss-Up

Starting placekicker and 2025 First-Team All-Pro. Strong-legged third-year kicker with franchise-record 62-yard make.

Toss-up — K12 by consensus, projects K14 this week: kicks indoors, and 1.3 red-zone stalls a game.

Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
MIN's offense stalls in the red zone 1.3 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has MIN at 21.5 points as 1.5-point dogs.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Evan McPherson	Will Reichard
Projected points	8.58.58.5	8.48.48.4
Consensus rank	K14	K12
Projected FG attempts	1.9	2.1
Red-zone stalls / game	1.1(2025)	1.3(2025)
Kicking conditions	—	Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread	27.0-3.5	21.5+1.5
Field-goal %	89.3%(2025)	94.3%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1