Cairo Santos or Evan McPherson: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Cairo Santos and Evan McPherson grade out even this week. Santos's best edge is the consensus rank (K11 to K14), McPherson's best edge is the game script (27.0 implied points to 23.5) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Cairo Santos

K11CHIvs CAR

8.38.38.3 Projected Points

Sit

Evan McPherson

K14CINvs TB

8.58.58.5 Projected Points

Start

Why Cairo Santos

Sit

Veteran starting K. Reliable mid-to-long range placekicker with consistent accuracy.

Sit — K11 by consensus, projects K16 this week: 1.4 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.3 pts projected vs CAR.

2.0 FG tries projected, right at the 2.0 league median this week.
CHI's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has CHI at 23.5 points as 2.5-point favorites.
83% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 3 games.

Why Evan McPherson

Start

Starting K with proven big-leg range. Reliable from distance in clutch situations.

Start — K14 by consensus, projects K11 this week: 1.1 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.5 pts projected vs TB.

1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
CIN's offense stalls in the red zone 1.1 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has CIN at 27 points as 3.5-point favorites.
89% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 4 games.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Cairo Santos	Evan McPherson
Projected points	8.38.38.3	8.58.58.5
Consensus rank	K11	K14
Projected FG attempts	2.0	1.9
Red-zone stalls / game	1.4(2025)	1.1(2025)
Implied total · spread	23.5-2.5	27.0-3.5
Field-goal %	83.3%(2025)	89.3%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1