Chase McLaughlin or Will Reichard: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Chase McLaughlin and Will Reichard grade out even this week. McLaughlin's best edge is the game script (23.5 implied points to 21.5), Reichard's best edge is the consensus rank (K12 to K15) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Chase McLaughlin

K15TBvs CIN

8.48.48.4 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Will Reichard

K12MINvs GB

8.48.48.4 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Chase McLaughlin

Toss-Up

Veteran starting placekicker. Reliable leg with strong field-goal accuracy.

Toss-up — K15 consensus and projection: 1.4 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.4 pts projected vs CIN.

2.0 FG tries projected, right at the 2.0 league median this week.
TB's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has TB at 23.5 points as 3.5-point dogs.
84% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 7 games.

Why Will Reichard

Toss-Up

Starting placekicker and 2025 First-Team All-Pro. Strong-legged third-year kicker with franchise-record 62-yard make.

Toss-up — K12 by consensus, projects K14 this week: kicks indoors, and 1.3 red-zone stalls a game.

Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
MIN's offense stalls in the red zone 1.3 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has MIN at 21.5 points as 1.5-point dogs.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Chase McLaughlin	Will Reichard
Projected points	8.48.48.4	8.48.48.4
Consensus rank	K15	K12
Projected FG attempts	2.0	2.1
Red-zone stalls / game	1.4(2025)	1.3(2025)
Kicking conditions	—	Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread	23.5+3.5	21.5+1.5
Field-goal %	84.2%(2025)	94.3%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	—