Start Evan McPherson over Trey Smack — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start McPherson — the consensus rank and game script edges are too wide to ignore.

Evan McPherson is the higher consensus play (K14 to K19) and plays in the better game script (27.0 implied team points to 23.0). Smack's edge is red-zone opportunity, 1.5 to 1.1 stalls per game. The gap is narrow.

Evan McPherson

K14CINvs TB

8.58.58.5 Projected Points

Start

Trey Smack

K19GBvs MIN

8.38.38.3 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Evan McPherson

Start

Starting K with proven big-leg range. Reliable from distance in clutch situations.

Start — K14 by consensus, projects K11 this week: 1.1 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.5 pts projected vs TB.

1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
CIN's offense stalls in the red zone 1.1 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has CIN at 27 points as 3.5-point favorites.
89% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 4 games.

Why Trey Smack

Toss-Up

Toss-up — K19 by consensus, projects K17 this week: kicks indoors, and 1.5 red-zone stalls a game.

Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
2.0 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
GB's offense stalls in the red zone 1.5 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has GB at 23 points as 1.5-point favorites.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Evan McPherson	Trey Smack
Projected points	8.58.58.5	8.38.38.3
Consensus rank	K14	K19
Projected FG attempts	1.9	2.0
Red-zone stalls / game	1.1(2025)	1.5(2025)
Kicking conditions	—	Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread	27.0-3.5	23.0-1.5
Field-goal %	89.3%(2025)	—
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	—	0–0+1 toss-up