Start Trey Smack over Wil Lutz — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Smack — the game script and projection edges are too wide to ignore.

Trey Smack plays in the better game script (23.0 implied team points to 20.0) and projects 8.3 to Lutz's 7.6. No signal favors Lutz this week. The gap is narrow.

Trey Smack

K19GBvs MIN

8.38.38.3 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Wil Lutz

K20DENvs KC

7.67.67.6 Projected Points

Sit

Why Trey Smack

Toss-Up

Toss-up — K19 by consensus, projects K17 this week: kicks indoors, and 1.5 red-zone stalls a game.

Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
2.0 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
GB's offense stalls in the red zone 1.5 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has GB at 23 points as 1.5-point favorites.

Why Wil Lutz

Sit

Veteran starting placekicker. Reliable leg with steady FG and PAT production across full-season usage.

Sit — K20 by consensus, projects K24 this week: 1.4 red-zone stalls a game, and 7.6 pts projected vs KC.

1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
DEN's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has DEN at 20 points as 2.5-point dogs.
88% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 4 games.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Trey Smack	Wil Lutz
Projected points	8.38.38.3	7.67.67.6
Consensus rank	K19	K20
Projected FG attempts	2.0	1.9
Red-zone stalls / game	1.5(2025)	1.4(2025)
Kicking conditions	Indoors, no weather risk	—
Implied total · spread	23.0-1.5	20.0+2.5
Field-goal %	—	87.5%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	—