Jake Elliott or Wil Lutz: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Jake Elliott and Wil Lutz grade out even this week. Elliott's best edge is the game script (26.0 implied points to 20.0), Lutz's best edge is red-zone opportunity (1.4 to 0.8 stalls per game) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Jake Elliott

K20PHIvs WSH

8.58.58.5 Projected Points

Start

Wil Lutz

K20DENvs KC

7.67.67.6 Projected Points

Sit

Why Jake Elliott

Start

Starting K and franchise mainstay. Super Bowl-tested in big moments but coming off back-to-back inconsistent regular seasons.

Start — K20 by consensus, projects K10 this week: 0.8 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.5 pts projected vs WSH.

1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
PHI's offense stalls in the red zone 0.8 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has PHI at 26 points as 5.5-point favorites.
74% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 3 games.

Why Wil Lutz

Sit

Veteran starting placekicker. Reliable leg with steady FG and PAT production across full-season usage.

Sit — K20 by consensus, projects K24 this week: 1.4 red-zone stalls a game, and 7.6 pts projected vs KC.

1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
DEN's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has DEN at 20 points as 2.5-point dogs.
88% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 4 games.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Jake Elliott	Wil Lutz
Projected points	8.58.58.5	7.67.67.6
Consensus rank	K20	K20
Projected FG attempts	1.9	1.9
Red-zone stalls / game	0.8(2025)	1.4(2025)
Implied total · spread	26.0-5.5	20.0+2.5
Field-goal %	74.1%(2025)	87.5%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1