Spencer Shrader or Wil Lutz: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Spencer Shrader and Wil Lutz grade out even this week. Shrader's best edge is the game script (23.0 implied points to 20.0), Lutz's best edge is the consensus rank (K20 to K21) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Spencer Shrader

K21INDvs BAL

8.28.28.2 Projected Points

Start

Wil Lutz

K20DENvs KC

7.67.67.6 Projected Points

Sit

Why Spencer Shrader

Start

Backup place kicker. Limited 2025 sample in a depth/spot role.

Start — K21 by consensus, projects K18 this week: 1.4 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.2 pts projected vs BAL.

2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
IND's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has IND at 23 points as 3.5-point dogs.
93% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 1 game.

Why Wil Lutz

Sit

Veteran starting placekicker. Reliable leg with steady FG and PAT production across full-season usage.

Sit — K20 by consensus, projects K24 this week: 1.4 red-zone stalls a game, and 7.6 pts projected vs KC.

1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
DEN's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has DEN at 20 points as 2.5-point dogs.
88% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 4 games.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Spencer Shrader	Wil Lutz
Projected points	8.28.28.2	7.67.67.6
Consensus rank	K21	K20
Projected FG attempts	2.1	1.9
Red-zone stalls / game	1.4(2025)	1.4(2025)
Implied total · spread	23.0+3.5	20.0+2.5
Field-goal %	92.9%(2025)	87.5%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1