Spencer Shrader or Tyler Bass: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Spencer Shrader and Tyler Bass grade out even this week. Shrader's best edge is the projection (8.2 to 7.5), Bass's best edge is the consensus rank (K20 to K21) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Spencer Shrader

K21INDvs BAL

8.28.28.2 Projected Points

Start

Tyler Bass

K20BUFvs HOU

7.57.57.5 Projected Points

Sit

Why Spencer Shrader

Start

Backup place kicker. Limited 2025 sample in a depth/spot role.

Start — K21 by consensus, projects K18 this week: 1.4 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.2 pts projected vs BAL.

2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
IND's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has IND at 23 points as 3.5-point dogs.
93% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 1 game.

Why Tyler Bass

Sit

Sit — K20 by consensus, projects K27 this week: 1.3 red-zone stalls a game, and 7.5 pts projected vs HOU.

1.8 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
BUF's offense stalls in the red zone 1.3 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has BUF at 23.5 points as 1.5-point favorites.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Spencer Shrader	Tyler Bass
Projected points	8.28.28.2	7.57.57.5
Consensus rank	K21	K20
Projected FG attempts	2.1	1.8
Red-zone stalls / game	1.4(2025)	1.3(2025)
Implied total · spread	23.0+3.5	23.5-1.5
Field-goal %	92.9%(2025)	—
Depth chart	K1	K1