Jake Elliott or Spencer Shrader: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Jake Elliott and Spencer Shrader grade out even this week. Elliott's best edge is the game script (26.0 implied points to 23.0), Shrader's best edge is red-zone opportunity (1.4 to 0.8 stalls per game) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Jake Elliott

K20PHIvs WSH

8.58.58.5 Projected Points

Start

Spencer Shrader

K21INDvs BAL

8.28.28.2 Projected Points

Start

Why Jake Elliott

Start

Starting K and franchise mainstay. Super Bowl-tested in big moments but coming off back-to-back inconsistent regular seasons.

Start — K20 by consensus, projects K10 this week: 0.8 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.5 pts projected vs WSH.

1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
PHI's offense stalls in the red zone 0.8 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has PHI at 26 points as 5.5-point favorites.
74% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 3 games.

Why Spencer Shrader

Start

Backup place kicker. Limited 2025 sample in a depth/spot role.

Start — K21 by consensus, projects K18 this week: 1.4 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.2 pts projected vs BAL.

2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
IND's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has IND at 23 points as 3.5-point dogs.
93% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 1 game.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Jake Elliott	Spencer Shrader
Projected points	8.58.58.5	8.28.28.2
Consensus rank	K20	K21
Projected FG attempts	1.9	2.1
Red-zone stalls / game	0.8(2025)	1.4(2025)
Implied total · spread	26.0-5.5	23.0+3.5
Field-goal %	74.1%(2025)	92.9%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1