Daniel Carlson or Jake Elliott: Who Should You Start?
Preliminary board2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Verdicts sharpen as practice reports land.
Too close to call — the edges cancel out.
Daniel Carlson and Jake Elliott grade out even this week. Carlson's best edge is red-zone opportunity (1.5 to 0.8 stalls per game), Elliott's best edge is the game script (26.0 implied points to 20.8) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.
Daniel Carlson
7.77.77.7 Projected Points
Jake Elliott
8.58.58.5 Projected Points
Why Daniel Carlson
Toss-UpToss-up — K21 by consensus, projects K23 this week: kicks indoors, and 1.5 red-zone stalls a game.
- Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
- 2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
- NO's offense stalls in the red zone 1.5 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has NO at 20.8 points as 7-point dogs.
Latest on Carlson
The Saints are signing free agent kicker Daniel Carlson, his agents told The NFL Network's Mike Garafolo and Ian Rapoport.
ESPN · Aug 24, 2026
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Jake Elliott
StartStarting K and franchise mainstay. Super Bowl-tested in big moments but coming off back-to-back inconsistent regular seasons.
Start — K20 by consensus, projects K10 this week: 0.8 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.5 pts projected vs WSH.
- 1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
- PHI's offense stalls in the red zone 0.8 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has PHI at 26 points as 5.5-point favorites.
- 74% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 3 games.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Daniel Carlson | Jake Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 7.77.77.7 | 8.58.58.5 |
| Consensus rank | K21 | K20 |
| Projected FG attempts | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Red-zone stalls / game | 1.5(2025) | 0.8(2025) |
| Kicking conditions | Indoors, no weather risk | — |
| Implied total · spread | 20.8+7.0 | 26.0-5.5 |
| Field-goal % | 81.5%(2025) | 74.1%(2025) |
| Depth chart | K1 | K1 |
Signal breakdown
- 7.7 vs 8.5 projected PPR pointsJake Elliott +
- Rank 21 vs 20Jake Elliott +
- 2.1 vs 1.9 projected attemptsDaniel Carlson +
- 1.5 vs 0.8 red-zone stalls per gameDaniel Carlson +
- Kicking weathereven
- Implied 20.8 vs 26.0 team pointsJake Elliott +
- No injury designationseven
Compare different players
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- T. LoopTyler LoopKBALvs INDH. ButkerHarrison ButkerKKCvs DEN
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