DJ Moore or Tony Pollard: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Moore — the game script and projection edges are too wide to ignore.

DJ Moore plays in the better game script (26.3 implied team points to 19.5) and projects 13.0 to Pollard's 11.8. Pollard's edge is availability, a clean report to Moore's Q. The gap is narrow.

In standard and half-PPR scoring this is a coin flip.

DJ Moore

DJ Moore

WR26BUFvs NE

Projected Points

Start· medium
Tony Pollard

Tony Pollard

RB28TENvs BAL

Projected Points

Toss-Up· low

DJ Moore’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
-152 / +119
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 49.5
-114 / -110
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+150
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Tony Pollard’s market

RUSH YDS
O/U 46.5
-113 / -113
Rushing Yards Props →
REC
O/U 1.5
-142 / +112
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 7.5
-120 / -110
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+230
Anytime Touchdown Props →
NE@
BUFSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
TEN@
BALSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why DJ Moore

Start· medium

WR1 and primary target. Physical yards-after-catch separator with occasional gadget rushing and trick-play usage.

WR26 with a 22% target share and a 26.3 implied team total; the AC joint sprain is a practice limitation, not a game designation.

  • NE ranks 20 of 32 against WRs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 26.3 team points as 3.0-point favorites.
  • Listed WR on the latest depth chart with a 57% snap share.

The call

  • Volume carries the case. A 22% target share at a 13.0-point projection (WR26) puts Moore in WR2/flex range in 12-team PPR, above a typical replacement option.
  • Game script helps. His team is a 3-point favorite with a 26.3 implied total, so there should be plenty of scoring chances.
  • The NE matchup is neutral at 20 of 32. It rests on a 3-game sample with 0.25 confidence, so it neither boosts nor sinks him.
  • Risk: the 57% snap share is modest. SI.com (2026-10-01) reports an AC joint sprain and a limited Wednesday practice, though he played 42 snaps against the Chargers and carries no designation. If he picks up a designation or misses Friday practice, this becomes a toss-up.

Latest on Moore

Status

DJ Moore is doubtful to return for the second half of Sunday's game due to a shoulder injury.

Bills WR D.J. Moore doubtful to return after injuring shoulderESPN · Oct 4, 2026
StatusPreviously

DJ Moore is questionable to return to Sunday's Week 4 game against the Patriots due to a shoulder injury.

Bills issue injury update on WR DJ Moore vs. Patriots Week 4buffalobills.com · Oct 4, 2026
StatusPreviously

DJ Moore remains on the injury report with an AC joint sprain; was limited on Wednesday after playing 42 snaps against the Chargers.

SI.com · Oct 1, 2026
Bills mark Keon Coleman, DJ Moore, Ed Oliver as questionable

Bills wide receivers Keon Coleman and DJ Moore and defensive lineman Ed Oliver are questionable to play against the Chargers.

ESPN · Sep 25, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Tony Pollard

Toss-Up· low

RB1 and lead back. One-cut zone runner with breakaway speed and 1,000-yard workload.

RB28 at 11.8 projected is flex-borderline; a 53% snap share and an 8.5-point spread with a 19.5 team total cap his ceiling.

  • BAL ranks 15 of 32 against RBs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 19.5 team points as 8.5-point underdogs.
  • Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 53% snap share.

The call

  • Projection of 11.8 PPR points and an RB28 consensus rank put him just outside RB2 range in 12-team leagues, so he is a FLEX consideration rather than a locked starter.
  • The matchup is neutral: BAL ranks 15 of 32 in the DvP composite, but that is a 3-game sample at 0.25 confidence, so it shouldn't move the needle much either way.
  • Game script is the main concern. If the 8.5-point spread has his team as the underdog, a 19.5 implied total suggests limited scoring chances and fewer early-down carries.
  • His 53% snap share is a committee-level role. A 9% target share gives him some PPR floor if the game turns pass-heavy. Start him over replacement options with a smaller role, but bench him for a flex with a clearer workload or a better game environment.

Latest on Pollard

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricDJ MooreTony Pollard
Projected points
Consensus rankWR26RB28
Opponent vs positionNE · 20 of 323-game sampleBAL · 15 of 323-game sample
Receptions22 of 3217 of 32
Receiving Yards9 of 323 of 32
Receiving TDs24 of 32—
Targets21 of 32—
Anytime TD24 of 3220 of 32
Rushing Yards—12 of 32
Rushing TDs—25 of 32
Rushing Attempts—11 of 32
Target share22%9%
Reception share20%11%
Implied total · spread26.3-3.019.5+8.5
Depth chartWR1RB1
Snap share57%53%
Injury designationQ—
Start/Sit record0–1+1 toss-up0–0+4 toss-ups

Recent form

DJ Moore — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs LAC
Week 2vs DET
Week 1vs HOU

Tony Pollard — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs NYG
Week 2vs PHI
Week 1vs NYJ

Signal breakdown

  • 13.0 vs 11.8 projected PPR pointsDJ Moore +
  • Rank 26 vs 28DJ Moore +
  • Opponent DvP rank 20 vs 15 (32 = softest)DJ Moore +
  • Implied 26.3 vs 19.5 team pointsDJ Moore +
  • Q vs no designationTony Pollard +
  • 57% vs 53% snap shareDJ Moore +

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