Harrison Butker or Ka'imi Fairbairn: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 2 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Fairbairn — the weather and consensus rank edges are too wide to ignore.
Ka'imi Fairbairn kicks in the friendlier conditions (6 mph wind, clear to Butker's 10 mph wind, drizzle) and is the higher consensus play (K4 to K10). Butker's edge is the game script, 27.0 implied points to 24.5. The gap is comfortable.
Harrison Butker
K10KCvs IND
9.19.19.1 Projected Points
Start· medium
Ka'imi Fairbairn
K4HOUvs CIN
9.89.89.8 Projected Points
Start· high
Why Harrison Butker
Start· mediumVeteran starting kicker with big-leg range. Proven under postseason pressure.
K10 with a 27.0 implied total, 1.5 red-zone stalls per game and 87% accuracy — rain is the only thing keeping this from a lock.
- 10 mph wind and rain at kickoff — a real drag on long tries.
- 2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
- KC's offense stalls in the red zone 1.5 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has KC at 27 points as 6.5-point favorites.
The call
- Kansas City's 27.0 implied total and 1.5 red-zone stalls per game is the ideal kicker combination: enough scoring for 2.6 projected extra points plus 2.1 field-goal tries.
- Butker is the locked PK1 with no designation and 87% accuracy (33/38), with a 59-yard long and five 50-plus makes — range that still pays off if drives bog down.
- Rain at kickoff under an open roof is the real risk and can shave a longer attempt or two, but a 9.1-point projection at K10 still clears the typical 12-team replacement.
Why Ka'imi Fairbairn
Start· highVeteran starting K. Reliable long-range leg and established accuracy.
K4 on the board with a 24.5 implied total, 1.8 red-zone stalls per game and 92% accuracy under a retractable roof — no weather risk.
- Calm forecast at kickoff.
- 2.4 FG tries projected, above the 2.0 league median this week.
- HOU's offense stalls in the red zone 1.8 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has HOU at 24.5 points as 2.5-point favorites.
The call
- Consensus K4 at 9.8 projected points, with 2.1 made field goals of 2.4 attempts plus 2.3 extra points — volume on both scoring paths.
- A 24.5 implied team total plus 1.8 red-zone stalls per game means the offense both moves the ball and hands him drives that die inside the 20.
- 92% accuracy (44/48) with a 57-yard long and 50-plus makes in six games means the long tries convert too.
- Retractable roof with a calm forecast either way removes weather from the equation, and he's the locked PK1 with no injury designation.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Harrison Butker | Ka'imi Fairbairn |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 9.19.19.1 | 9.89.89.8 |
| Consensus rank | K10 | K4 |
| Projected FG attempts | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| Red-zone stalls / game | 1.5(2025) | 1.8(2025) |
| Kicking conditions | 10 mph wind and rain forecast at kickoff | Retractable roof, calm forecast either way |
| Implied total · spread | 27.0-6.5 | 24.5-2.5 |
| Field-goal % | 86.8%(2025) | 91.7%(2025) |
| Depth chart | K1 | K1 |
| Start/Sit record | 0–1 | — |
Recent form
Harrison Butker — last 1 week
| Week 1 | vs DEN | 7.07.07.0 |
Ka'imi Fairbairn — last 1 week
| Week 1 | vs BUF | 9.09.09.0 |
Signal breakdown
- 9.1 vs 9.8 projected PPR pointsKa'imi Fairbairn +
- Rank 10 vs 4Ka'imi Fairbairn +
- 2.1 vs 2.4 projected attemptsKa'imi Fairbairn +
- 1.5 vs 1.8 red-zone stalls per gameKa'imi Fairbairn +
- 10 mph, 73°F, drizzle vs 6 mph, 92°F, clearKa'imi Fairbairn +
- Implied 27.0 vs 24.5 team pointsHarrison Butker +
- No injury designationseven
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