Start Ka'imi Fairbairn over Eddy Pineiro — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Fairbairn — the red-zone opportunity and projection edges are too wide to ignore.

Ka'imi Fairbairn gets more red-zone stalls to kick from (1.8 to 1.4 per game) and projects 9.8 to Pineiro's 8.7. Pineiro's edge is the game script, 22.8 implied points to 22.0. The gap is comfortable.

Eddy Pineiro

K6SFvs LAR

8.78.78.7 Projected Points

Start

Ka'imi Fairbairn

K4HOUvs BUF

9.89.89.8 Projected Points

Start

Why Eddy Pineiro

Start

Veteran starting K. Reliable from short and mid-range with NFL experience.

Start — K6 by consensus, projects K9 this week: 1.4 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.7 pts projected vs LAR.

2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
SF's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has SF at 22.8 points as 3-point dogs.
97% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 5 games.

Why Ka'imi Fairbairn

Start

Veteran starting K. Reliable leg with consistent NFL track record.

Start — K4 by consensus, projects K3 this week: 2.4 FG tries projected, above the 2.0 median, and 1.8 red-zone stalls a game.

2.4 FG tries projected, above the 2.0 league median this week.
HOU's offense stalls in the red zone 1.8 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has HOU at 22 points as 1.5-point dogs.
92% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 6 games.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Eddy Pineiro	Ka'imi Fairbairn
Projected points	8.78.78.7	9.89.89.8
Consensus rank	K6	K4
Projected FG attempts	2.1	2.4
Red-zone stalls / game	1.4(2025)	1.8(2025)
Implied total · spread	22.8+3.0	22.0+1.5
Field-goal %	96.6%(2025)	91.7%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1