Start Ka'imi Fairbairn over Cam Little — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Fairbairn — the projection and consensus rank edges are too wide to ignore.

Ka'imi Fairbairn projects 9.8 to Little's 8.8 and is the higher consensus play (K4 to K7). Little's edge is the game script, 24.0 implied points to 22.0. The gap is narrow.

Cam Little

K7JAXvs CLE

8.88.88.8 Projected Points

Start

Ka'imi Fairbairn

K4HOUvs BUF

9.89.89.8 Projected Points

Start

Why Cam Little

Start

Starting K with strong leg. Full-time placekicker with long-range range.

Start — K7 consensus and projection: 1.6 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.8 pts projected vs CLE.

2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
JAX's offense stalls in the red zone 1.6 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has JAX at 24 points as 7.5-point favorites.
88% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 6 games.

Why Ka'imi Fairbairn

Start

Veteran starting K. Reliable leg with consistent NFL track record.

Start — K4 by consensus, projects K3 this week: 2.4 FG tries projected, above the 2.0 median, and 1.8 red-zone stalls a game.

2.4 FG tries projected, above the 2.0 league median this week.
HOU's offense stalls in the red zone 1.8 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has HOU at 22 points as 1.5-point dogs.
92% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 6 games.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Cam Little	Ka'imi Fairbairn
Projected points	8.88.88.8	9.89.89.8
Consensus rank	K7	K4
Projected FG attempts	2.1	2.4
Red-zone stalls / game	1.6(2025)	1.8(2025)
Implied total · spread	24.0-7.5	22.0+1.5
Field-goal %	88.2%(2025)	91.7%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1