Harrison Mevis or Ka'imi Fairbairn: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Harrison Mevis and Ka'imi Fairbairn grade out even this week. Mevis's best edge is the game script (25.8 implied points to 22.0), Fairbairn's best edge is attempt volume (2.4 to 2.0 projected attempts) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Harrison Mevis

K6LARvs SF

9.49.49.4 Projected Points

Start

Ka'imi Fairbairn

K4HOUvs BUF

9.89.89.8 Projected Points

Start

Why Harrison Mevis

Start

Place kicker with strong-leg profile. Limited NFL sample in spot-duty role.

Start — K6 by consensus, projects K4 this week: 1.6 red-zone stalls a game, and 9.4 pts projected vs SF.

2.0 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
LAR's offense stalls in the red zone 1.6 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has LAR at 25.8 points as 3-point favorites.
92% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 1 game.

Why Ka'imi Fairbairn

Start

Veteran starting K. Reliable leg with consistent NFL track record.

Start — K4 by consensus, projects K3 this week: 2.4 FG tries projected, above the 2.0 median, and 1.8 red-zone stalls a game.

2.4 FG tries projected, above the 2.0 league median this week.
HOU's offense stalls in the red zone 1.8 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has HOU at 22 points as 1.5-point dogs.
92% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 6 games.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Harrison Mevis	Ka'imi Fairbairn
Projected points	9.49.49.4	9.89.89.8
Consensus rank	K6	K4
Projected FG attempts	2.0	2.4
Red-zone stalls / game	1.6(2025)	1.8(2025)
Implied total · spread	25.8-3.0	22.0+1.5
Field-goal %	92.3%(2025)	91.7%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1