Start Harrison Mevis over Cam Little — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Mevis — the game script and projection edges are too wide to ignore.

Harrison Mevis plays in the better game script (25.8 implied team points to 24.0) and projects 9.4 to Little's 8.8. Little's edge is attempt volume, 2.1 to 2.0 projected attempts. The gap is narrow.

Cam Little

K7JAXvs CLE

8.88.88.8 Projected Points

Start

Harrison Mevis

K6LARvs SF

9.49.49.4 Projected Points

Start

Why Cam Little

Start

Starting K with strong leg. Full-time placekicker with long-range range.

Start — K7 consensus and projection: 1.6 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.8 pts projected vs CLE.

2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
JAX's offense stalls in the red zone 1.6 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has JAX at 24 points as 7.5-point favorites.
88% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 6 games.

Why Harrison Mevis

Start

Place kicker with strong-leg profile. Limited NFL sample in spot-duty role.

Start — K6 by consensus, projects K4 this week: 1.6 red-zone stalls a game, and 9.4 pts projected vs SF.

2.0 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
LAR's offense stalls in the red zone 1.6 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has LAR at 25.8 points as 3-point favorites.
92% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 1 game.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Cam Little	Harrison Mevis
Projected points	8.88.88.8	9.49.49.4
Consensus rank	K7	K6
Projected FG attempts	2.1	2.0
Red-zone stalls / game	1.6(2025)	1.6(2025)
Implied total · spread	24.0-7.5	25.8-3.0
Field-goal %	88.2%(2025)	92.3%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1