Start Cameron Dicker over Ka'imi Fairbairn — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Dicker — the game script and projection edges are too wide to ignore.

Cameron Dicker plays in the better game script (28.5 implied team points to 22.0) and projects 10.3 to Fairbairn's 9.8. Fairbairn's edge is attempt volume, 2.4 to 2.3 projected attempts. The gap is narrow.

Cameron Dicker

K2LACvs ARI

10.310.310.3 Projected Points

Start

Ka'imi Fairbairn

K4HOUvs BUF

9.89.89.8 Projected Points

Start

Why Cameron Dicker

Start

Starting K and reliable scorer. High-accuracy leg with full-season placekicking workload.

Start — K2 by consensus, projects K1 this week: kicks indoors, and 1.8 red-zone stalls a game.

Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
2.3 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
LAC's offense stalls in the red zone 1.8 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has LAC at 28.5 points as 11.5-point favorites.

Why Ka'imi Fairbairn

Start

Veteran starting K. Reliable leg with consistent NFL track record.

Start — K4 by consensus, projects K3 this week: 2.4 FG tries projected, above the 2.0 median, and 1.8 red-zone stalls a game.

2.4 FG tries projected, above the 2.0 league median this week.
HOU's offense stalls in the red zone 1.8 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has HOU at 22 points as 1.5-point dogs.
92% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 6 games.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Cameron Dicker	Ka'imi Fairbairn
Projected points	10.310.310.3	9.89.89.8
Consensus rank	K2	K4
Projected FG attempts	2.3	2.4
Red-zone stalls / game	1.8(2025)	1.8(2025)
Kicking conditions	Indoors, no weather risk	—
Implied total · spread	28.5-11.5	22.0+1.5
Field-goal %	92.7%(2025)	91.7%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1