Eddy Pineiro or Jake Bates: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Eddy Pineiro and Jake Bates grade out even this week. Pineiro's best edge is the consensus rank (K6 to K9), Bates's best edge is the game script (27.8 implied points to 22.8) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Eddy Pineiro

K6SFvs LAR

8.78.78.7 Projected Points

Start

Jake Bates

K9DETvs NO

8.78.78.7 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Eddy Pineiro

Start

Veteran starting K. Reliable from short and mid-range with NFL experience.

Start — K6 by consensus, projects K9 this week: 1.4 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.7 pts projected vs LAR.

2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
SF's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has SF at 22.8 points as 3-point dogs.
97% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 5 games.

Why Jake Bates

Toss-Up

Starting placekicker. Strong-legged kicker with deep range on field-goal attempts.

Toss-up — K9 by consensus, projects K8 this week: kicks indoors, and 1.4 red-zone stalls a game.

Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
DET's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has DET at 27.8 points as 7-point favorites.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Eddy Pineiro	Jake Bates
Projected points	8.78.78.7	8.78.78.7
Consensus rank	K6	K9
Projected FG attempts	2.1	1.9
Red-zone stalls / game	1.4(2025)	1.4(2025)
Kicking conditions	—	Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread	22.8+3.0	27.8-7.0
Field-goal %	96.6%(2025)	79.4%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	—	0–0+1 toss-up