Spencer Shrader or Trey Smack: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Shrader vs. Smack: same implied total, same stalls-driven volume, no real edge

Both kickers sit behind offenses stuck at the same implied total, and both are locked in as their team's only option, so this comes down to shading rather than a clear separation. Shrader's game carries a slight edge in raw attempt volume, but Smack's dome removes even the small variance a retractable roof with no forecast yet could introduce. Smack's rookie status is the one thing to watch, since he has zero NFL regular-season sample to lean on, while Shrader has already shown he can hit from 50-plus. Neither offense is a shootout attack, but neither stalls enough to be scared off either.

What flips it: A Friday weather report turning ugly for Indianapolis pushes this toward Smack.

AI editor

Spencer Shrader

K18INDvs BAL

8.28.28.2 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Trey Smack

K17GBvs MIN

8.38.38.3 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Why Spencer Shrader

Toss-Up· medium

Starting placekicker with a strong leg. Limited career sample and kickoff-touchback value.

K18 with a 23.0 implied total and just 2.1 projected FG tries — fine as a plug, but a top-12 kicker in a higher-scoring game is the better play.

A slightly higher red-zone stall rate for IND means a few more field-goal tries instead of touchdowns, padding his floor.
He's already banked a proven 50-plus make, something Smack has no track record on at all.

The call

Ranked K18 on 8.2 projected points, which is outside the 12-team starter tier — you're reaching if you have any top-12 option rostered.
The volume case is real: 1.4 red-zone stalls per game plus 2.1 projected attempts, and Shrader has been automatic at 93% (13/14) with a 52-yard long.
A 23.0 implied total with a 3.5-point spread caps the ceiling — this projects as a two-XP, two-FG day rather than a five-scoring-drive script.
Retractable roof and no injury designation remove the weather and availability risk; if the forecast comes in clean and your alternative is a low-total dome-less kicker, Shrader is startable.

Why Trey Smack

Toss-Up· medium

Rookie starting placekicker with a strong leg. Long-range kickoff and field-goal ability; no NFL regular-season sample yet.

Dome game and 1.5 red-zone stalls per game keep the floor safe, but K17 with a 23.0 implied total is streamer territory in 12-team leagues.

Green Bay's spread has them favored, which typically means more competitive, sustained drives than a team playing from behind.
The dome fully eliminates weather as a variable, while Indy's forecast is still unsettled.

The call

Weather is a non-factor — indoor dome, no wind or precipitation risk, so the 1.7-of-2.0 field goal projection and 2.3 extra points should hold.
The offense stalling in the red zone 1.5 times per game is the reason he has a floor at all; those drives convert into the field goal attempts that carry his 8.3 projection.
A 23.0 implied team total and a -1.5 spread point to a tight, moderate-scoring game — enough volume to be usable, not enough to push him past the top 12.
He's the locked-in PK1 with no designation, so if your alternative is a kicker in an outdoor game or on a lower-total offense, Smack is the play; a top-12 kicker with a higher implied total tips it the other way.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Spencer Shrader	Trey Smack
Projected points	8.28.28.2	8.38.38.3
Consensus rank	K18	K17
Projected FG attempts	2.1	2.0
Red-zone stalls / game	1.4(2025)	1.5(2025)
Kicking conditions	—	Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread	23.0+3.5	23.0-1.5
Field-goal %	92.9%(2025)	—
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	0–0+1 toss-up