Start Trey Smack over Tyler Bass — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Smack's dome and extra red-zone trip outweigh Bass's slightly higher implied total

Neither kicker is a must-start, but Smack is the one worth streaming while Bass is closer to a bench-and-forget. Smack's dome setting removes the swing factor Bass still carries with no forecast yet, and an extra half-attempt of field-goal volume matters more than the half-point gap in implied team total. Bass's stall rate actually being lower than Smack's is the real tell — his offense is finishing possessions more often, leaving fewer field-goal chances for a guy already stuck at K20. The board treats Bass as a sit, and nothing here argues to overturn that; Smack survives as a streaming option rather than an obvious lock.

What flips it: A game-day forecast turning ugly in Buffalo, or a Smack role change ahead of his first regular-season sample.

AI editor

Trey Smack

K17GBvs MIN

8.38.38.3 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Tyler Bass

K20BUFvs HOU

7.57.57.5 Projected Points

Sit

Why Trey Smack

Toss-Up· medium

Rookie starting placekicker with a strong leg. Long-range kickoff and field-goal ability; no NFL regular-season sample yet.

K19 in a 12-team format, but a dome, a 23.0 implied total and 1.5 red-zone stalls per game keep him in the streaming mix.

A rookie leg without an NFL sample yet, but a dome removes any weather variance from his profile
His offense stalling more often than Bass's actually creates more field-goal chances for him

The call

The projection is the problem: 8.3 points and a K19 consensus rank put him just outside the every-week starter tier in a 12-team league, so a top-12 kicker on waivers should beat him out.
Everything around the volume is favorable — indoor game with no weather risk, a 23.0 implied team total and a 1.5-per-game red-zone stall rate that manufactures field goal tries on top of the 2.3 projected extra points.
He's the clear PK1 with no injury designation, so the role is locked; the ceiling is capped by only 2.0 projected attempts.
Tip-in: if the alternative on your waiver wire is a kicker with a higher implied total or more attempts, sit Smack; if you're choosing between him and an outdoor kicker in a low-total game, the dome makes him the play.

Why Tyler Bass

Sit

Starting placekicker. Strong leg on kickoffs and long-range attempts.

Sit — K20 by consensus, projects K27 this week: 1.3 red-zone stalls a game, and 7.5 pts projected vs HOU.

A half-point higher implied total than Smack, but no forecast yet leaves outdoor risk unresolved
Fewer red-zone stalls means his offense is scoring more touchdowns, which caps his own kicking volume

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Trey Smack	Tyler Bass
Projected points	8.38.38.3	7.57.57.5
Consensus rank	K17	K20
Projected FG attempts	2.0	1.8
Red-zone stalls / game	1.5(2025)	1.3(2025)
Kicking conditions	Indoors, no weather risk	—
Implied total · spread	23.0-1.5	23.5-1.5
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	—