Dallas Goedert or Kyle Pitts Sr.: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Goedert's game script vs. Pitts' target share — pick your flavor of TE1

This one splits on what kind of volume you trust more. Goedert plays behind a 5.5-point favorite that should be moving the ball and finding the end zone often, which matters for a red-zone threat who blocks his way onto the field even in run-heavy stretches. Pitts is outranked at the position by consensus but actually out-targets Goedert on slightly more snaps, playing for a team that has to throw to keep pace as a field-goal underdog. The projections are basically identical, so this comes down to whether you'd rather have Goedert's better team situation or Pitts' slightly heavier route-running role — neither edge is decisive.

What flips it: A Falcons offense forced into obvious catch-up mode late.

AI editor

In standard scoring this flips to Goedert.

Dallas Goedert

TE12PHIvs WSH

6.78.810.9 Projected Points

Start· medium

Kyle Pitts Sr.

TE6ATLvs PIT

5.68.010.4 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Dallas Goedert

Start· medium

Starting TE1 in pass-catching role. Reliable possession target and red-zone threat with run-blocking willingness.

20% target share on 85% of snaps with a 26.0 implied team total — Goedert is a locked-in TE1 play as a 5.5-point favorite.

Plays for the better team script, and red-zone touches matter more for a TE who also blocks than for a pure route-runner.
Positive game flow means designed looks near the goal line, not just checkdown volume.

The call

A 20% target share is elite for the position and it comes on an 85% snap share, so his floor doesn't depend on touchdown luck.
Philadelphia's 26.0 implied total is among the better marks on the board; favored by 5.5, the offense should stay in rhythm rather than get pushed into pure hurry-up.
TE12 consensus with 10.9 projected points is a fringe number in a vacuum, but the volume profile is well ahead of a typical streamer — that's the tiebreaker.
Risk is game script: a comfortable lead into heavy run usage could cap him near the projection rather than above it.

Why Kyle Pitts Sr.

Start· medium

Starting TE in pass-catching role. Mismatch seam-stretcher with rare athletic profile; high target volume in passing game.

TE6 consensus with a 23% target share and 88% snap rate — that volume plays in 12-team PPR regardless of a modest 19.8 team total.

Out-targets Goedert on a per-snap basis despite the uglier team total, meaning his volume isn't script-dependent.
Athletic mismatch profile lets him win regardless of how ATL's offense trends in-game.

The call

A 23% target share is elite for the position and pairs with an 88% snap share, so Pitts is on the field for essentially every route and is a primary read, not a situational piece.
Consensus TE6 at 10.4 projected PPR points clears the bar over a replacement-level tight end in a 12-team league; the deterministic toss-up undersells how locked-in the role is.
The 19.8 implied team total is the real drag — this is a low-ceiling spot and Pitts may need volume rather than efficiency to get there.
A 3.0-point spread keeps the game competitive, which is fine for a high-target tight end who benefits from pass-heavy chase situations if Atlanta falls behind.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Dallas Goedert	Kyle Pitts Sr.
Projected points	6.78.810.9	5.68.010.4
Consensus rank	TE12	TE6
Opponent vs position	WSHno ranking yet	PITno ranking yet
Target share	20%(2025)	23%(2025)
Reception share	21%(2025)	27%(2025)
Implied total · spread	26.0-5.5	19.8+3.0
Depth chart	TE1	TE1
Snap share	85%(2025)	88%(2025)