Matt Gay or Tyler Bass: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Gay's dome certainty edges Bass's weather question

Matt Gay's case rests on volume you can bank on: a dome eliminates any weather variable and nudges him to a fuller attempt count than Bass gets in Buffalo. Tyler Bass actually plays behind a better-scoring offense with a shorter road to the end zone, but that scoring efficiency is exactly what caps his kick chances, and the retractable roof leaves an open question the sheet can't answer yet. The red-zone-stall gap between them is trivial, so this really comes down to whether you trust raw attempt volume in a controlled environment over a stronger offense with more forecast risk. Vegas likes the Raiders to lean on Gay a touch more than Buffalo leans on Bass, which is the real separator here.

What flips it: A closed roof confirmation for Buffalo would tighten this back toward even.

AI editor

Matt Gay

K19LVvs MIA

8.18.18.1 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Tyler Bass

K20BUFvs HOU

7.57.57.5 Projected Points

Sit

Why Matt Gay

Toss-Up

Veteran starting K with big-leg range and an 84.3% career mark, coming off a shaky 13-of-19 season in Washington before a midseason move to San Francisco.

Toss-up — K19 consensus and projection: kicks indoors, and 1.2 red-zone stalls a game.

Dome conditions mean zero weather variance, and his attempt line is the fuller of the two kickers here.
Sits behind a tighter spread, meaning more likely field-goal tries instead of the offense simply cruising to scores.

Why Tyler Bass

Sit

Starting placekicker. Strong leg on kickoffs and long-range attempts.

Sit — K20 by consensus, projects K27 this week: 1.3 red-zone stalls a game, and 7.5 pts projected vs HOU.

Plays behind the higher implied team total, a sign of a more explosive offense even if drives stall short more often.
No weather report yet, but the retractable roof at least gives him a chance at a controlled setting.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Matt Gay	Tyler Bass
Projected points	8.18.18.1	7.57.57.5
Consensus rank	K19	K20
Projected FG attempts	2.1	1.8
Red-zone stalls / game	1.2(2025)	1.3(2025)
Kicking conditions	Indoors, no weather risk	—
Implied total · spread	22.3-3.0	23.5-1.5
Field-goal %	73.9%(2025)	—
Depth chart	K1	K1