Start Chase McLaughlin over Spencer Shrader — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

McLaughlin edges Shrader in a near-mirror matchup of two low-volume PK1s

Neither kicker is walking into a shootout: both offenses project south of two field-goal attempts and stall in the red zone at the same 1.4 clip, so this comes down to margins. McLaughlin's higher consensus standing and Tampa Bay's slightly richer implied total nudge him ahead, and his 65-yard long gives him more margin if the game turns into a distance battle. Shrader's blistering 93% clip this year is a small sample, and a retractable roof removes the wind-card upside that sometimes bails out a low-attempt kicker. The real risk here is volume, not accuracy — either kicker can get shut out of points if their offense stalls one more time than usual.

What flips it: A retractable-roof closure detail or added wind risk at TB's open stadium would swing this toward Shrader.

AI editor

Chase McLaughlin

K14TBvs CIN

8.48.48.4 Projected Points

Start· medium

Spencer Shrader

K18INDvs BAL

8.28.28.2 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Why Chase McLaughlin

Start· medium

Starting placekicker with big-leg range and a 65-yard career long. Reliable from distance, though his 84.9% career accuracy sits around league average.

K14 undersells him: 1.4 red-zone stalls per game feed steady tries, 84% accuracy and seven 50-plus makes give him range most kickers can't match.

His 65-yard long and multi-game 50-plus track record give him a real shot at bonus points if TB stalls again
Ranked well ahead of Shrader among industry kickers, a signal that outside data favors his role and offense more

The call

Tampa stalls in the red zone 1.4 times per game, which is exactly the profile that turns a 23.5 implied total into FG attempts rather than touchdown-only extra points — the sheet projects 2.0 attempts plus 2.1 extra points.
McLaughlin is 32-of-38 (84%) with a make from 50-plus in 7 games and a long of 65, so drives that stall near midfield still convert into points for you — that's real upside above his 8.4 projection.
Locked in as PK1 with no injury designation in a 3.5-point game, meaning the script stays competitive and the offense keeps kicking rather than sitting on a blowout lead.
Only caution is the open roof with no forecast yet; if game-day wind spikes, a dome kicker on the waiver wire becomes the safer play.

Why Spencer Shrader

Toss-Up· medium

Starting placekicker with a strong leg. Limited career sample and kickoff-touchback value.

K18 with a 23.0 implied total and just 2.1 projected FG tries — fine as a plug, but a top-12 kicker in a higher-scoring game is the better play.

This year's accuracy is elite, so almost anything he touches inside range should go through
A retractable roof takes weather variance off the table entirely for game night

The call

Ranked K18 on 8.2 projected points, which is outside the 12-team starter tier — you're reaching if you have any top-12 option rostered.
The volume case is real: 1.4 red-zone stalls per game plus 2.1 projected attempts, and Shrader has been automatic at 93% (13/14) with a 52-yard long.
A 23.0 implied total with a 3.5-point spread caps the ceiling — this projects as a two-XP, two-FG day rather than a five-scoring-drive script.
Retractable roof and no injury designation remove the weather and availability risk; if the forecast comes in clean and your alternative is a low-total dome-less kicker, Shrader is startable.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Chase McLaughlin	Spencer Shrader
Projected points	8.48.48.4	8.28.28.2
Consensus rank	K14	K18
Projected FG attempts	2.0	2.1
Red-zone stalls / game	1.4(2025)	1.4(2025)
Implied total · spread	23.5+3.5	23.0+3.5
Field-goal %	84.2%(2025)	92.9%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	0–0+1 toss-up