D'Andre Swift or Jordan Addison: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Role and script are strong: a 65% snap share and 10% target share on an offense implied for 27.0 points and favored by 8.5 sets up positive volume, including late-game rushing work.
• The matchup is neutral. NYJ ranks 16 of 32 in DvP, but on a 3-game sample with only 0.25 confidence, so it doesn't move the needle either way.
• The risk is health. Sports Illustrated reported he was added to the injury report with a knee issue and did not practice Thursday, and a Questionable tag means he could sit or be limited.
• What tips it: if he practices Friday and drops the tag, start him as a solid RB2 at his 14.9 projection. If he stays limited or is a game-time decision in an early slot, pivot to a healthy RB2/flex.

The call

• Usage is the driver. A 90% snap share and 24% target share over 3 games is every-down WR volume. That usually beats a WR46 consensus rank as a flex play in 12-team PPR.
• Game environment helps. A 25.5 implied team total means plenty of scoring chances. The -7.5 spread could tilt the script run-heavy late, which caps his ceiling more than his floor.
• The matchup is the real knock: MIA grades 5 of 32 vs WRs. That comes from only a 3-game sample at 0.25 confidence, so it shouldn't override his locked-in role.
• Risk: he's listed as WR-2 with no designation. The quoted Week 3 line (90 yards and a TD) came with Justin Jefferson absent, so don't bank on that target load if the alpha is back. Treat him as a solid flex, not a WR2.