Evan McPherson or Spencer Shrader: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start McPherson — the consensus rank and game script edges are too wide to ignore.
Evan McPherson is the higher consensus play (K13 to K21) and plays in the better game script (27.0 implied team points to 23.0). Shrader's edge is red-zone opportunity, 1.4 to 1.1 stalls per game. The gap is comfortable.
Evan McPherson
8.58.58.5 Projected Points
Spencer Shrader
8.28.28.2 Projected Points
Why Evan McPherson
Start· mediumStarting placekicker with big-leg range. Proven clutch postseason performer.
27.0 implied total, calm open-roof conditions and an 89% (25/28) leg make McPherson a clean K13 play with 1.7 FGs and 2.7 XPs projected.
- Calm forecast at kickoff.
- 1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
- CIN's offense stalls in the red zone 1.1 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has CIN at 27 points as 3.5-point favorites.
The call
- Cincinnati's 27.0 implied total is the driver here — that volume of scoring means 2.7 projected extra points on top of 1.7 made field goals, giving him a high floor for the K slot.
- He's the locked-in PK1 with no designation and elite accuracy at 89% (25/28) this season, plus 50-plus range shown in 4 games and a 63-yard long, so the upside on long tries is real.
- Calm forecast in an open-roof stadium removes the wind/weather variable that separates kickers most weeks.
- Mild caution: only 1.9 attempts projected and 1.1 red-zone stalls per game means he's leaning on touchdown-drive extra points rather than stalled-drive field goals, so a low-scoring script would cap him.
Why Spencer Shrader
Toss-Up· mediumStarting placekicker with a strong leg. Limited career sample and kickoff-touchback value.
K17 at 8.2 projected: dome, 93% accuracy and a 23.0 implied total are fine, but the reported kicking competition caps confidence in the job.
- Calm forecast at kickoff.
- 2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
- IND's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has IND at 23 points as 3.5-point dogs.
The call
- Environment is a plus: retractable roof with a calm forecast either way, so no wind or precipitation tax on a 1.8-of-2.1 field-goal projection plus 2.0 extra points.
- Volume is only adequate — 23.0 implied team total and 1.4 red-zone stalls per game give him a real but unspectacular floor, which is why he lands at K17 rather than a set-and-forget starter.
- Job security is the swing factor: he's listed PK1 with no designation, but colts.com (2026-08-23) described him as "in a close kicking competition," and only one 50-plus make (long 52) means limited bonus-range upside.
- Tipping point: if he's confirmed as the unquestioned kicker on game week, the indoor script makes him a fine streaming start; any hint of a shared job and you take a top-12 kicker instead.
Latest on Shrader
Spencer Shrader remains in a close kicking competition after making both of his field-goal attempts in the game.
5 Colts Things: Seth McGowan, Spencer Shrader, CJ Allen and other notes from preseason Week 2colts.com · Aug 23, 2026Shrader was, and remains, the only kicker on the Colts' initial 53-man roster when it was released Sunday.
Shrader connected on field goals from 60 and 61 yards during the preseason and emerged from a tight competition with Blake Grupe to be the Colts' kicker in 2026.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Evan McPherson | Spencer Shrader |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 8.58.58.5 | 8.28.28.2 |
| Consensus rank | K13 | K21 |
| Projected FG attempts | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| Red-zone stalls / game | 1.1(2025) | 1.4(2025) |
| Kicking conditions | Calm forecast at kickoff | Retractable roof, calm forecast either way |
| Implied total · spread | 27.0-3.5 | 23.0+3.5 |
| Field-goal % | 89.3%(2025) | 92.9%(2025) |
| Depth chart | K1 | K1 |
| Start/Sit record | — | 0–0+1 toss-up |
Signal breakdown
- 8.5 vs 8.2 projected PPR pointsEvan McPherson +
- Rank 13 vs 21Evan McPherson +
- 1.9 vs 2.1 projected attemptsSpencer Shrader +
- 1.1 vs 1.4 red-zone stalls per gameSpencer Shrader +
- 8 mph, 86°F, overcast vs 8 mph, 83°F, overcasteven
- Implied 27.0 vs 23.0 team pointsEvan McPherson +
- No injury designationseven
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