Start Trey Smack over Andy Borregales — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Smack — the projection and game script edges are too wide to ignore.

Trey Smack projects 8.3 to Borregales's 6.9 and plays in the better game script (23.0 implied team points to 20.5). Borregales's edge is red-zone opportunity, 1.6 to 1.5 stalls per game. The gap is narrow.

Andy Borregales

K19NEvs SEA

6.96.96.9 Projected Points

Sit

Trey Smack

K19GBvs MIN

8.38.38.3 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Andy Borregales

Sit

Starting placekicker. Strong-legged kickoff and field-goal specialist.

Sit — K19 by consensus, projects K32 this week: 1.6 red-zone stalls a game, and 6.9 pts projected vs SEA.

1.8 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
NE's offense stalls in the red zone 1.6 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has NE at 20.5 points as 3.5-point dogs.
84% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 4 games.

Why Trey Smack

Toss-Up

Toss-up — K19 by consensus, projects K17 this week: kicks indoors, and 1.5 red-zone stalls a game.

Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
2.0 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
GB's offense stalls in the red zone 1.5 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has GB at 23 points as 1.5-point favorites.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Andy Borregales	Trey Smack
Projected points	6.96.96.9	8.38.38.3
Consensus rank	K19	K19
Projected FG attempts	1.8	2.0
Red-zone stalls / game	1.6(2025)	1.5(2025)
Kicking conditions	—	Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread	20.5+3.5	23.0-1.5
Field-goal %	84.4%(2025)	—
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	—	0–0+1 toss-up