Start Jake Bates over Cairo Santos — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Bates — the game script and consensus rank edges are too wide to ignore.

Jake Bates plays in the better game script (27.8 implied team points to 23.5) and is the higher consensus play (K9 to K11). Santos's edge is attempt volume, 2.0 to 1.9 projected attempts. The gap is narrow.

Cairo Santos

K11CHIvs CAR

8.38.38.3 Projected Points

Sit

Jake Bates

K9DETvs NO

8.78.78.7 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Cairo Santos

Sit

Veteran starting K. Reliable mid-to-long range placekicker with consistent accuracy.

Sit — K11 by consensus, projects K16 this week: 1.4 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.3 pts projected vs CAR.

2.0 FG tries projected, right at the 2.0 league median this week.
CHI's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has CHI at 23.5 points as 2.5-point favorites.
83% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 3 games.

Why Jake Bates

Toss-Up

Starting placekicker. Strong-legged kicker with deep range on field-goal attempts.

Toss-up — K9 by consensus, projects K8 this week: kicks indoors, and 1.4 red-zone stalls a game.

Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
DET's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has DET at 27.8 points as 7-point favorites.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Cairo Santos	Jake Bates
Projected points	8.38.38.3	8.78.78.7
Consensus rank	K11	K9
Projected FG attempts	2.0	1.9
Red-zone stalls / game	1.4(2025)	1.4(2025)
Kicking conditions	—	Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread	23.5-2.5	27.8-7.0
Field-goal %	83.3%(2025)	79.4%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	—	0–0+1 toss-up