Start Jake Bates over Will Reichard — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Bates' Blowout Script Edges Reichard's Better Leg

Detroit's 27.8 implied total against a soft Saints defense is the whole story here — that kind of scoring pace means more extra points and more red-zone trips for Bates than Minnesota's 21.5 total gives Reichard, even in a game where Minnesota is favored by only 1.5. Reichard is the more accurate kicker by a wide margin and has already banked a franchise-record 62-yard make, but a low-scoring, closer game caps his ceiling on volume alone. The gap in raw stalls is minor, but the gap in game environment is not, and that is what separates two very similar dome kickers on similar depth charts. This is a lean, not a mismatch — either one is a fine start.

What flips it: A Lions spread that tightens toward a one-score game would erase Bates' scoring-pace edge and flip this to Reichard.

AI editor

Jake Bates

K9DETvs NO

8.78.78.7 Projected Points

Start· medium

Will Reichard

K12MINvs GB

8.48.48.4 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Jake Bates

Start· medium

Starting placekicker. Strong-legged kicker with deep range on field-goal attempts.

K9 in a dome with a 27.8 implied total — 2.9 projected XPs plus 1.7 makes and 50-plus range give Bates a top-10 floor.

Playing in the higher-scoring game script by a wide margin, which means more extra-point and short-range chances
Consensus rank edge (K9 vs K12) reflects that Detroit's blowout-favorite role keeps feeding him volume

The call

The 27.8 implied team total as a 7-point favorite is the key number: that volume of scoring means 2.9 projected extra points on top of 1.7 made field goals, which is exactly how kickers hit 8-plus.
Dome game, no weather risk — one of the few variables that actually separates kickers is neutralized here.
Locked-in PK1 with no injury designation, 79% accuracy (27/34) and a 59-yard long with 50-plus makes in 4 games, so the long-range upside is live.
Only mild caution: 1.9 projected attempts and 1.4 red-zone stalls per game mean he needs the offense to keep stalling short of the goal line for field-goal volume, so the score leans XP-dependent.

Why Will Reichard

Toss-Up

Starting placekicker and 2025 First-Team All-Pro. Strong-legged third-year kicker with franchise-record 62-yard make.

Toss-up — K12 by consensus, projects K14 this week: kicks indoors, and 1.3 red-zone stalls a game.

Far more accurate kicker this season and has hit from 50-plus nearly every other game — the safer make if he gets the look
Tied game script with Green Bay means fewer garbage-time field goals but also fewer forced settle-for-three situations

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Jake Bates	Will Reichard
Projected points	8.78.78.7	8.48.48.4
Consensus rank	K9	K12
Projected FG attempts	1.9	2.1
Red-zone stalls / game	1.4(2025)	1.3(2025)
Kicking conditions	Indoors, no weather risk	Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread	27.8-7.0	21.5+1.5
Field-goal %	79.4%(2025)	94.3%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	—