Ka'imi Fairbairn or Will Reichard: Who Should You Start?

Preliminary board

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Verdicts sharpen as practice reports land.

Start Fairbairn — the red-zone opportunity and consensus rank edges are too wide to ignore.

Ka'imi Fairbairn gets more red-zone stalls to kick from (2.0 to 0.3 per game) and is the higher consensus play (K4 to K12). Reichard's edge is the weather, a dome to 13 mph wind, overcast. The gap is comfortable.

Ka'imi Fairbairn

Ka'imi Fairbairn

K4HOUvs DAL

Projected Points

Start· high
Will Reichard

Will Reichard

K12MINvs MIA

Projected Points

Start· medium
DAL@
HOUSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
MIA@
MINSun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ETView the game →

Why Ka'imi Fairbairn

Start· high

Veteran starting K. Reliable long-range leg and established accuracy.

K4 at 9.9 projected points with 2.4 FG attempts, 2.0 red-zone stalls/game and a 25.0 implied total. Retractable roof neutralizes the 10 mph wind.

  • 13 mph wind at kickoff (retractable roof, likely closed) — a real drag on long tries.
  • 2.4 FG tries projected, above the 2.0 league median this week.
  • HOU's offense stalls in the red zone 2.0 times a game — that's where kicker points come from.
  • Vegas has HOU at 25 points as 2.5-point favorites.

The call

  • Volume is there: 2.1 made of 2.4 projected FG attempts plus 2.4 extra points, on a team implied for 25.0 as a 2.5-point favorite.
  • Houston's offense stalls in the red zone 2.0 times per game (3-game sample), which turns into field-goal tries rather than touchdowns. That is the kicker's bread and butter.
  • Fairbairn is reliable at 92% (44/48 in 2025), with 50-plus makes in 6 games and a long of 57, so long attempts are playable.
  • Weather risk is minimal: the 10 mph wind forecast matters little under a retractable roof likely closed in poor weather. He's locked in as PK1 with no designation. The ESPN headline is unverified and adds nothing actionable.

Latest on Fairbairn

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Will Reichard

Start· medium

Starting K with strong leg. Handles kickoffs and long-range attempts.

Dome kicker on a 25.5 implied total as a 7.5-pt favorite, 94% FG with 50+ range; K12 floor is startable in 12-team leagues.

  • Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
  • 2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
  • MIN's offense stalls in the red zone 0.3 times a game — that's where kicker points come from.
  • Vegas has MIN at 25.5 points as 7.5-point favorites.

The call

  • Indoors with no weather risk, and his 94% accuracy (33/35) plus 50-plus makes in 9 games and a 62-yard long give him every distance in range.
  • A 25.5 implied team total and a -7.5 spread point to steady scoring volume: 1.8 FGs on 2.1 attempts plus 2.7 extra points drive a 9.1 projection.
  • The risk is red-zone efficiency. His offense stalls only 0.3 times per game (3-game sample), so drives may end in touchdowns and XPs rather than field-goal tries.
  • At K12 he sits right at the 12-team starter line. The dome and team total tip him to a start over a typical waiver kicker, but not with high confidence.

Head-to-head stats

MetricKa'imi FairbairnWill Reichard
Projected points
Consensus rankK4K12
Projected FG attempts2.42.1
Red-zone stalls / game2.00.3
Kicking conditions13 mph wind forecast at kickoff (retractable roof, likely closed in poor weather)Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread25.0-2.525.5-7.5
Field-goal %91.7%(2025)94.3%(2025)
Depth chartK1K1
Start/Sit record0–10–2

Recent form

Ka'imi Fairbairn — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs IND
Week 2vs CIN
Week 1vs BUF

Will Reichard — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs TB
Week 2vs CHI
Week 1vs GB

Signal breakdown

  • 9.9 vs 9.1 projected PPR pointsKa'imi Fairbairn +
  • Rank 4 vs 12Ka'imi Fairbairn +
  • 2.4 vs 2.1 projected attemptsKa'imi Fairbairn +
  • 2.0 vs 0.3 red-zone stalls per gameKa'imi Fairbairn +
  • 13 mph, 83°F, overcast vs domeWill Reichard +
  • Implied 25.0 vs 25.5 team pointsWill Reichard +
  • No injury designationseven

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