Ka'imi Fairbairn or Tyler Bass: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Fairbairn — the consensus rank and weather edges are too wide to ignore.

Ka'imi Fairbairn is the higher consensus play (K4 to K21) and kicks in the friendlier conditions (5 mph wind, partly cloudy to Bass's 15 mph wind, overcast). Bass's edge is the game script, 25.8 implied points to 23.5. The gap is wide.

Ka'imi Fairbairn

Ka'imi Fairbairn

K4HOUvs IND

Projected Points

Start
Tyler Bass

Tyler Bass

K21BUFvs LAC

Projected Points

Start
HOU@
INDSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
LAC@
BUFSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Ka'imi Fairbairn

Start

Veteran starting K. Reliable long-range leg and established accuracy.

Start — K4 consensus and projection: 2.3 FG tries projected, above the 2.0 median, and 1.8 red-zone stalls a game.

  • Calm forecast at kickoff.
  • 2.3 FG tries projected, above the 2.0 league median this week.
  • HOU's offense stalls in the red zone 1.8 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
  • Vegas has HOU at 23.5 points as 1.5-point favorites.

Latest on Fairbairn

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Tyler Bass

Start

Starting placekicker. Strong leg on kickoffs and long-range attempts.

Start — K21 by consensus, projects K12 this week: 15 mph wind at kickoff, and 1.3 red-zone stalls a game.

  • 15 mph wind at kickoff — a real drag on long tries.
  • 1.8 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
  • BUF's offense stalls in the red zone 1.3 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
  • Vegas has BUF at 25.8 points as 3-point favorites.

Head-to-head stats

MetricKa'imi FairbairnTyler Bass
Projected points
Consensus rankK4K21
Projected FG attempts2.31.8
Red-zone stalls / game1.8(2025)1.3(2025)
Kicking conditionsRetractable roof, calm forecast either way15 mph wind forecast at kickoff
Implied total · spread23.5-1.525.8-3.0
Field-goal %91.7%(2025)—
Depth chartK1K1
Start/Sit record0–10–1

Recent form

Ka'imi Fairbairn — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs CIN
Week 1vs BUF

Tyler Bass — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs DET
Week 1vs HOU

Signal breakdown

  • 9.3 vs 8.6 projected PPR pointsKa'imi Fairbairn +
  • Rank 4 vs 21Ka'imi Fairbairn +
  • 2.3 vs 1.8 projected attemptsKa'imi Fairbairn +
  • 1.8 vs 1.3 red-zone stalls per gameKa'imi Fairbairn +
  • 5 mph, 71°F, partly cloudy vs 15 mph, 66°F, overcastKa'imi Fairbairn +
  • Implied 23.5 vs 25.8 team pointsTyler Bass +
  • No injury designationseven

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