Jake Bates or Trey Smack: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Bates — the consensus rank and game script edges are too wide to ignore.

Jake Bates is the higher consensus play (K9 to K18) and plays in the better game script (27.5 implied team points to 27.0). Smack's edge is the projection, 9.2 to 8.8. The gap is narrow.

Jake Bates

Jake Bates

K9DETvs NYJ

Projected Points

Start· medium
Trey Smack

Trey Smack

K18GBvs ATL

Projected Points

Start· low
NYJ@
DETSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
ATL@
GBThu, Sep 24, 8:15 PM ETView the game →

Why Jake Bates

Start· medium

Starting PK with a massive leg. Big-range field goal threat beyond 55.

K9 with a 27.5 implied total in a dome and 3.0 projected XPs — Bates is a top-10 kicker with no weather or role risk.

  • Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
  • 1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
  • DET's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
  • Vegas has DET at 27.5 points as 9.5-point favorites.

The call

  • Consensus K9 at 8.8 projected points already clears the replacement bar in a 12-team league; you don't bench a top-10 kicker for a streamer here.
  • Detroit's 27.5 implied total and -9.5 spread point to volume: 3.0 projected extra points plus 1.9 FG attempts, with 1.4 red-zone stalls per game adding chances that die inside the 30.
  • Indoors with no weather risk and PK1 on the depth chart with no injury designation — the two things that actually sink kicker weeks are both off the table.
  • Only real wart is 79% accuracy (27/34), but he has hit from 50-plus in four games with a 59-yard long, so range isn't a limiter.

Why Trey Smack

Start· low

Rookie starting placekicker with a strong leg. Long-range kickoff and field-goal ability; no NFL regular-season sample yet.

A 27.0 implied total as a 7.5-point favorite in calm weather gives Smack 2.1 FGA and 2.8 XP of volume, despite a lukewarm K18 consensus rank.

  • Calm forecast at kickoff.
  • 2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
  • GB's offense stalls in the red zone 1.5 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
  • Vegas has GB at 27 points as 7.5-point favorites.

The call

  • Scoring environment is the case. His offense is implied for 27.0 points and favored by 7.5, which supports a projected 1.8 FG made on 2.1 attempts plus 2.8 extra points.
  • Conditions are clean. The forecast is calm with the roof open, and his offense stalled in the red zone 1.5 times per game over 17 games last season, a steady source of field-goal tries.
  • The main counterweight is the K18 consensus rank, which sits just outside the 12-team starter tier. His 9.2-point projection is what keeps him in play over a waiver kicker.
  • The overtime game-winner is nice context but doesn't predict volume. What would tip this to a sit is a kicker with a higher rank and a comparable implied total sitting on your waiver wire.

Latest on Smack

Role

Trey Smack made the game-winning kick in the Packers' overtime win.

Meet Cam Achord: The Packers' secret special teams weaponESPN · Sep 24, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricJake BatesTrey Smack
Projected points
Consensus rankK9K18
Projected FG attempts1.92.1
Red-zone stalls / game1.4(2025)1.5(2025)
Kicking conditionsIndoors, no weather riskCalm forecast at kickoff
Implied total · spread27.5-9.527.0-7.5
Field-goal %79.4%(2025)—
Depth chartK1K1
Start/Sit record0–10–0+2 toss-ups

Recent form

Jake Bates — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs BUF
Week 1vs NO

Trey Smack — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs NYJ
Week 1vs MIN

Signal breakdown

  • 8.8 vs 9.2 projected PPR pointsTrey Smack +
  • Rank 9 vs 18Jake Bates +
  • 1.9 vs 2.1 projected attemptsTrey Smack +
  • 1.4 vs 1.5 red-zone stalls per gameTrey Smack +
  • dome vs 5 mph, 61°F, overcasteven
  • Implied 27.5 vs 27.0 team pointsJake Bates +
  • No injury designationseven

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