Jason Sanders or Trey Smack? Start Trey Smack — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Trey Smack: the dome and stronger scoring environment win out

Trey Smack gets the better kicker setup: Green Bay's higher scoring expectation and extra red-zone stalls create more paths to both field goals and extra points. The margin is narrow, but Sanders' slight consensus edge is less meaningful than the difference in offensive opportunity, while calm weather keeps his matchup from gaining ground. Smack's real risk is experience—he is a rookie without an NFL regular-season sample—whereas Sanders was elevated to the active roster by the Jets (newyorkjets.com 2026-09-12).

What flips it: A late change to Smack's starting role or a material downgrade to Green Bay's scoring outlook.

Sources: newyorkjets.com · Sep 12, 2026

AI editor

Jason Sanders

K17NYJvs TEN

7.57.57.5 Projected Points

Sit

Trey Smack

K18GBvs MIN

8.28.28.2 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

NYJ@

TENSun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

GB@

MINSun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ETView the game →

Why Jason Sanders

Sit

Sit — K17 by consensus, projects K28 this week: 1.3 red-zone stalls a game, and 7.5 pts projected vs TEN.

Calm conditions remove weather risk, but they do not solve the Jets' lower scoring opportunity.
His consensus edge offers some floor, though not enough to overcome the weaker offensive outlook.

Latest on Sanders

Jets Elevate K Jason Sanders to Active Roster

Green & White Place WR Tim Patrick on Reserve/Injured List

newyorkjets.com · Sep 12, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Trey Smack

Toss-Up· medium

Rookie starting placekicker with a strong leg. Long-range kickoff and field-goal ability; no NFL regular-season sample yet.

Dome game and 1.5 red-zone stalls per game give Smack a floor, but K18 and a 23.0 implied total make him a replacement-level streamer.

The dome gives his strong leg a clean runway, including on longer attempts.
More red-zone stalls create a sturdier path to points than the projection gap alone suggests.

The call

Ranked K18 on consensus with 8.2 projected points — that's just outside the 12-team starter tier, so he's only in play if your usual kicker is off the board or in bad weather.
The environment helps: indoors with no weather risk, PK1 with no injury designation, and 1.5 red-zone stalls per game means Miami regularly hands him tries from scoring position.
A 23.0 implied team total and a -1.5 spread point to a tight, modest-scoring game — 2.0 attempts and 2.2 extra points is a functional but unspectacular workload.
Tipping point: if a rival kicker on your bench has a higher implied total or more projected attempts, sit Smack; in a dome with a close spread, he's a fine plug-in otherwise.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Jason Sanders	Trey Smack
Projected points	7.57.57.5	8.28.28.2
Consensus rank	K17	K18
Projected FG attempts	1.9	2.0
Red-zone stalls / game	1.3(2025)	1.5(2025)
Kicking conditions	Calm forecast at kickoff	Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread	18.3+3.0	23.0-1.5
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	—	0–0+1 toss-up

Signal breakdown

7.5 vs 8.2 projected PPR pointsTrey Smack +
Rank 17 vs 18Jason Sanders +
1.9 vs 2.0 projected attemptsTrey Smack +
1.3 vs 1.5 red-zone stalls per gameTrey Smack +
3 mph, 91°F, clear vs domeeven
Implied 18.3 vs 23.0 team pointsTrey Smack +
No injury designationseven

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Jason Sanders or Trey Smack: Who Should You Start?