Start Jake Bates over Jake Elliott — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Bates — the red-zone opportunity and weather edges are too wide to ignore.

Jake Bates gets more red-zone stalls to kick from (1.4 to 0.8 per game) and kicks in the friendlier conditions (a dome to Elliott's 6 mph wind, drizzle). No signal favors Elliott this week. The gap is comfortable.

Jake Bates

K8DETvs NO

8.78.78.7 Projected Points

Start· medium

Jake Elliott

K12PHIvs WSH

8.58.58.5 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Jake Bates

Start· medium

Starting PK with a massive leg. Big-range field goal threat beyond 55.

K9 in a dome with a 27.8 implied total — 2.9 projected XPs plus 1.7 makes and 50-plus range give Bates a top-10 floor.

Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
DET's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has DET at 27.8 points as 7-point favorites.

The call

The 27.8 implied team total as a 7-point favorite is the key number: that volume of scoring means 2.9 projected extra points on top of 1.7 made field goals, which is exactly how kickers hit 8-plus.
Dome game, no weather risk — one of the few variables that actually separates kickers is neutralized here.
Locked-in PK1 with no injury designation, 79% accuracy (27/34) and a 59-yard long with 50-plus makes in 4 games, so the long-range upside is live.
Only mild caution: 1.9 projected attempts and 1.4 red-zone stalls per game mean he needs the offense to keep stalling short of the goal line for field-goal volume, so the score leans XP-dependent.

Why Jake Elliott

Start· medium

Veteran starting K with big-leg range. Proven in high-leverage postseason kicks.

26.0 implied team total and a 5.5-point favorite role give Elliott a 3.0-XP floor plus 1.9 FG tries — enough volume despite the K20 tag.

rain at kickoff — a real drag on long tries.
1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
PHI's offense stalls in the red zone 0.8 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has PHI at 26 points as 5.5-point favorites.

The call

Philadelphia's 26.0 implied total is the key input: 3.0 projected extra points give Elliott a floor most K20-ranked kickers don't have, and 1.9 attempts add the upside.
Only 0.8 red-zone stalls per game means this offense finishes drives rather than settling for field goals — that caps attempt volume but converts into the XP floor instead.
Risk factors are real: 74% accuracy (20/27) is unimpressive and the K20 consensus rank says the market sees him as a fringe starter, so a shootout that stalls could leave 5-6 points.
He's locked in as PK1 with no injury designation, and the open roof has no forecast yet — recheck weather before locking, since wind is the one thing that would flip this to a sit.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Jake Bates	Jake Elliott
Projected points	8.78.78.7	8.58.58.5
Consensus rank	K8	K12
Projected FG attempts	1.9	1.9
Red-zone stalls / game	1.4(2025)	0.8(2025)
Kicking conditions	Indoors, no weather risk	rain forecast at kickoff
Implied total · spread	27.8-7.0	26.0-5.5
Field-goal %	79.4%(2025)	74.1%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	—