Start Evan McPherson over Jake Elliott — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

McPherson's cleaner accuracy and stall-prone Bengals offense edge out Elliott's bigger spread

Both kickers project to the same 8.5 points on identical attempt volume, so this comes down to what happens when the ball doesn't reach the end zone. Cincinnati stalling more often in the red zone is exactly the profile that turns drives into field-goal tries, and McPherson has been far more automatic when he gets the look, converting at a much higher clip with the deeper long. Elliott's extra-point total is actually higher, which tells you Philadelphia is scoring touchdowns instead of settling — good for the Eagles, less useful for a kicker's ceiling. The gap in makes is thin, but the accuracy split is the kind of thing that shows up when trust matters on a 50-plus try.

What flips it: A wind advisory or accuracy correction for McPherson — or a sudden Philly red-zone slump — would put Elliott back in play.

AI editor

Evan McPherson

K14CINvs TB

8.58.58.5 Projected Points

Start· medium

Jake Elliott

K20PHIvs WSH

8.58.58.5 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Evan McPherson

Start· medium

Starting placekicker with big-leg range. Proven clutch postseason performer.

27.0 implied total plus 89% accuracy (25/28) and a 63-yard long make McPherson a fine K play — 8.5 projected points, 2.7 XPs baked in.

Cincinnati's red-zone stalls create the FG chances a kicker actually needs, not just trips downfield.
89% accuracy with a 63-yard long make gives him range and touch other guys are missing.

The call

A 27.0 implied team total is a top-tier kicker environment: 2.7 projected extra points plus 1.9 field-goal tries gives him one of the better volume floors at the position.
He's been elite and locked in as PK1 — 89% accuracy on 25-of-28 with a 63-yard long and 50-plus makes in four games, so even stalled drives outside the 40 convert.
Only 1.1 red-zone stalls per game is a mild ceiling cap — this offense finishes drives, which pushes his scoring toward XPs rather than three-pointers.
Open roof with no forecast yet is the one thing to monitor; heavy wind would knock him back into the toss-up tier at K14.

Why Jake Elliott

Start· medium

Veteran starting K with big-leg range. Proven in high-leverage postseason kicks.

26.0 implied team total and a 5.5-point favorite role give Elliott a 3.0-XP floor plus 1.9 FG tries — enough volume despite the K20 tag.

A 5.5-point favorite role means Philly controls the game and keeps trips to the fringe of scoring range.
Higher projected extra points shows the offense is finishing drives, which still pads a kicker's floor.

The call

Philadelphia's 26.0 implied total is the key input: 3.0 projected extra points give Elliott a floor most K20-ranked kickers don't have, and 1.9 attempts add the upside.
Only 0.8 red-zone stalls per game means this offense finishes drives rather than settling for field goals — that caps attempt volume but converts into the XP floor instead.
Risk factors are real: 74% accuracy (20/27) is unimpressive and the K20 consensus rank says the market sees him as a fringe starter, so a shootout that stalls could leave 5-6 points.
He's locked in as PK1 with no injury designation, and the open roof has no forecast yet — recheck weather before locking, since wind is the one thing that would flip this to a sit.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Evan McPherson	Jake Elliott
Projected points	8.58.58.5	8.58.58.5
Consensus rank	K14	K20
Projected FG attempts	1.9	1.9
Red-zone stalls / game	1.1(2025)	0.8(2025)
Implied total · spread	27.0-3.5	26.0-5.5
Field-goal %	89.3%(2025)	74.1%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1