Jake Elliott or Tyler Loop: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Philadelphia's 26.0 implied total is the key input: 3.0 projected extra points give Elliott a floor most K20-ranked kickers don't have, and 1.9 attempts add the upside.
• Only 0.8 red-zone stalls per game means this offense finishes drives rather than settling for field goals — that caps attempt volume but converts into the XP floor instead.
• Risk factors are real: 74% accuracy (20/27) is unimpressive and the K20 consensus rank says the market sees him as a fringe starter, so a shootout that stalls could leave 5-6 points.
• He's locked in as PK1 with no injury designation, and the open roof has no forecast yet — recheck weather before locking, since wind is the one thing that would flip this to a sit.

The call

• A 26.5 implied team total is among the best kicker environments on the board: 2.6 projected extra points give him a scoring floor before a single field goal.
• Baltimore stalls in the red zone 1.9 times per game, which converts drives into the 2.0 attempts projected here — volume plus touchdown equity is the ideal kicker mix.
• He's 30-of-34 (88%) on the season and locked in as PK1 with no injury designation; the retractable roof removes most weather downside even with no forecast yet.
• Only real cap is the 50-plus profile — one make from that range with a long of 52 — so the upside is volume-driven rather than bonus-leg driven.