Chris Boswell or Jake Bates: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Boswell's extra FG try just edges Bates in a genuine coin-flip week

Both PK1s carry zero red flags, and the model can't separate them because their edges cancel out. Boswell's Steelers stall more often in the red zone, which actually works for him — those stalled drives become field-goal tries rather than empty possessions, and he's earned the accuracy to cash them. Bates plays behind a much hotter Lions offense, but that scoring strength cuts both ways for a kicker: touchdowns instead of field goals shave his attempt count even as his implied total balloons. Neither weather nor injury tips this — it comes down to whether you trust Pittsburgh's stall-prone offense or Detroit's scoring blowout to produce the better kicking script.

What flips it: A Lions red-zone stall or a Steelers goal-line punch-in would swing the attempt count and decide this outright.

AI editor

Chris Boswell

K6PITvs ATL

9.09.09.0 Projected Points

Start· medium

Jake Bates

K8DETvs NO

8.78.78.7 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Chris Boswell

Start· medium

Starting PK and one of the league's most accurate. Big leg with proven cold-weather clutch production.

Boswell is the K12 play with a 22.8 implied total, 2.1 projected FG tries and 1.2 red-zone stalls per game feeding the leg.

Pittsburgh's tendency to stall in the red zone converts into extra field-goal tries rather than points he misses out on entirely.
His accuracy track record gives him a real shot at cashing the 50-plus look if Pittsburgh needs one late.

The call

Consensus K12 at 9.0 projected points is squarely startable in a 12-team league — no replacement-level kicker beats that baseline.
Pittsburgh's 22.8 implied total plus 1.2 red-zone stalls per game funnels drives into field-goal tries: 1.9 makes on 2.1 attempts with 2.4 extra points projected.
He's the locked-in PK1 with no designation, hitting 84% (27/32) and connecting from 50-plus in six games with a 60-yard long, so distance isn't a cap on his range.
Only real wrinkle is an open roof with no forecast yet — check wind before kickoff, but nothing in the sheet suggests a problem.

Why Jake Bates

Start· medium

Starting PK with a massive leg. Big-range field goal threat beyond 55.

K9 in a dome with a 27.8 implied total — 2.9 projected XPs plus 1.7 makes and 50-plus range give Bates a top-10 floor.

A dome eliminates any weather variable, so his leg strength and range are the only questions that matter.
If Detroit's blowout stalls even once inside the 10, his longer range makes that a near-automatic three.

The call

The 27.8 implied team total as a 7-point favorite is the key number: that volume of scoring means 2.9 projected extra points on top of 1.7 made field goals, which is exactly how kickers hit 8-plus.
Dome game, no weather risk — one of the few variables that actually separates kickers is neutralized here.
Locked-in PK1 with no injury designation, 79% accuracy (27/34) and a 59-yard long with 50-plus makes in 4 games, so the long-range upside is live.
Only mild caution: 1.9 projected attempts and 1.4 red-zone stalls per game mean he needs the offense to keep stalling short of the goal line for field-goal volume, so the score leans XP-dependent.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Chris Boswell	Jake Bates
Projected points	9.09.09.0	8.78.78.7
Consensus rank	K6	K8
Projected FG attempts	2.1	1.9
Red-zone stalls / game	1.2(2025)	1.4(2025)
Kicking conditions	—	Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread	22.8-3.0	27.8-7.0
Field-goal %	84.4%(2025)	79.4%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	—	0–0+1 toss-up