Cam Little or Chris Boswell: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Little and Boswell Mirror Each Other at K6 — Split Hairs, Not Verdicts

Both kickers sit at the same consensus slot with matching attempt counts, so this comes down to which offense hands its leg more work. Little's Jaguars stall in the red zone more often and carry a fatter spread, the exact combination that turns touchdown drives into chip-shot field goals — his edge on paper is thin, but it's real. Boswell counters with the cleaner accuracy gap you'd expect from one of the league's most trusted legs, and Pittsburgh's tighter spread against Atlanta still projects enough volume to keep him in the same tier. Neither team's forecast is set yet, so weather could reshuffle both floors before Sunday.

What flips it: A finalized forecast that turns windy or wet in either city, since neither kicker has a locked-in weather read yet.

AI editor

Cam Little

Cam Little

K6JAXvs CLE

Projected Points

Start
Chris Boswell

Chris Boswell

K6PITvs ATL

Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Cam Little

Start

Starting K with elite leg strength. Proven range well beyond 55 yards.

Start — K6 by consensus, projects K7 this week: 1.6 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.8 pts projected vs CLE.

  • Jacksonville's red-zone stalls happen more often than Pittsburgh's, funneling more scoring drives into field-goal tries for Little.
  • A bigger spread means more clock-killing possessions late, which tends to pad a leading team's kicker with garbage-time attempts.

Why Chris Boswell

Start· medium

Starting PK and one of the league's most accurate. Big leg with proven cold-weather clutch production.

Boswell is the K12 play with a 22.8 implied total, 2.1 projected FG tries and 1.2 red-zone stalls per game feeding the leg.

  • Boswell has hit a higher share of his field-goal tries this season, the accuracy gap the rank tier doesn't fully capture.
  • Atlanta's game projects closer, which caps upside but also keeps Pittsburgh's offense working instead of blowing the game open early.

The call

  • Consensus K12 at 9.0 projected points is squarely startable in a 12-team league — no replacement-level kicker beats that baseline.
  • Pittsburgh's 22.8 implied total plus 1.2 red-zone stalls per game funnels drives into field-goal tries: 1.9 makes on 2.1 attempts with 2.4 extra points projected.
  • He's the locked-in PK1 with no designation, hitting 84% (27/32) and connecting from 50-plus in six games with a 60-yard long, so distance isn't a cap on his range.
  • Only real wrinkle is an open roof with no forecast yet — check wind before kickoff, but nothing in the sheet suggests a problem.

Head-to-head stats

MetricCam LittleChris Boswell
Projected points
Consensus rankK6K6
Projected FG attempts2.12.1
Red-zone stalls / game1.6(2025)1.2(2025)
Implied total · spread24.0-7.522.8-3.0
Field-goal %88.2%(2025)84.4%(2025)
Depth chartK1K1

Signal breakdown

  • 8.8 vs 9.0 projected PPR pointsChris Boswell +
  • Rank 6 vs 6Chris Boswell +
  • 2.1 vs 2.1 projected attemptsChris Boswell +
  • 1.6 vs 1.2 red-zone stalls per gameCam Little +
  • Kicking weathereven
  • Implied 24.0 vs 22.8 team pointsCam Little +
  • No injury designationseven

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